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Author Topic: PeeWee A 2018/2019  (Read 104680 times)

Strawman

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Re: PeeWee A 2018/2019
« Reply #150 on: December 12, 2018, 10:30:30 AM »
But I do understand statistics, and also understand that the rankings scores represent expected outcomes that are subject to variability and distribution patterns about them... and understand the data used to inform the models are often limited.  The rankings aren't perfect, nor are they fully predictive, but at least they're objective. I'll take them most any day over your WAGs!


I apologize for being too slow to catch your reference to “WAGS,” but your response is incoherent. Your original post said that rankings identify probabilities, but then you cover your rear end by saying they aren’t predictive. To the extent they reliably identify probabilities they are predictive, and vice versa. To the extent they don’t, they aren’t, but are just lists that make people feel good or bad. They might be “objective” lists of data, but that doesn’t make them predictive or probabilistic.

Strawman

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Re: PeeWee A 2018/2019
« Reply #151 on: December 12, 2018, 10:39:35 AM »
On what basis do you say that? Are you also saying the Wave 1 team doesn't deserve to be ranked as the top team in PW A?
Experiance..   Not saying they are the best or not.


Thay are a  very good team.  Could they beat some PW AA teams? Probably.   Can they get their asses handed to them by most PW AA teams ?, probably.  Rankings are computer algorithms.   Few years ago, another Wave team won States.  There were a California team that they had beat several times and was still ranked ahead of them.  Also a few teams that they had beaten in tournaments that were also ranked higher.


If it makes you feel good, thump your chest for now.


RANKINGS DONT MEAN SHIT


When someone says rankings don't mean shit, it usually means their team sucks...


Actually, my son plays on the top “ranked” team in the state in another division, which is also one of the top “ranked” teams in the country. It doesn’t mean shit. And as Trans [size=78%]pointed out, a relatively low-ranked PW team a couple of years ago won states, over a higher “ranked” team that just happened never to be able to beat them when it mattered. At this level, given how miniscule the data sets are, the rankings don’t mean shit. Ask any statistician, if you know one. But please feel good about your ranking while it lasts, because that’s the most important thing about the entire youth hockey experience. [/size]

DEFENDERS

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Re: PeeWee A 2018/2019
« Reply #152 on: December 12, 2018, 10:54:30 AM »
 [font=]
Just something to think about?
 
Why would a team with (10) 06’s and (6) 07’s regardless of whether they are returning PeeWee A players or not, want to make the same mistake as other teams/clubs. This is the problem Clubs/coaches and parents chasing all those additional A’s and spending $$$$$$$$$$$$.
 
You people keep drinking the Kool-Aid and thinking that little Gretzky is the next one and we’ll just keep having fun and my sons will just keep making lifelong friends.
 
And as for rankings, your correct they don’t’ mean shit UNTIL you go to Nationals. Good Luck!!!!!
 
[/font]


socalhockeydad

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Re: PeeWee A 2018/2019
« Reply #153 on: December 12, 2018, 11:00:39 AM »
Lets clarify rankings...


Do they mean shit when playing a team lower or higher than you? Of course...because thats life. Anything can happen. #1 ranked team in any sport can lose to the #20 ranked team any given sunday.


With that being said...rankings, and we are talking about MHR, are based on an algorithm that gets better as the season goes on. It calculates rankings based on who you played and the score. So, it actually is a great tool to see where your team measures up against CA and national teams.


Also, more and more tournaments are using MYR as a deciding factor of admission or not. That is more on the Tier level but its still becoming a thing.


So in summary...rankings dont matter when it comes to the actual game. Welcome to life.


Rankings do matter when it comes to everything else in life.




Strawman

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Re: PeeWee A 2018/2019
« Reply #154 on: December 12, 2018, 11:16:24 AM »
Lets clarify rankings...


Do they mean shit when playing a team lower or higher than you? Of course...because thats life. Anything can happen. #1 ranked team in any sport can lose to the #20 ranked team any given sunday.


With that being said...rankings, and we are talking about MHR, are based on an algorithm that gets better as the season goes on. It calculates rankings based on who you played and the score. So, it actually is a great tool to see where your team measures up against CA and national teams.


Also, more and more tournaments are using MYR as a deciding factor of admission or not. That is more on the Tier level but its still becoming a thing.


So in summary...rankings dont matter when it comes to the actual game. Welcome to life.


Rankings do matter when it comes to everything else in life.


Obviously rankings are important for playoff seeding in any league.  But you asserted that they are also predictive of results. Not with the kinds of data sets you are talking about.  Especially not when it comes to national rankings at for example the PWA and PWAA levels. 


Let me give you a real-world example without naming all the "top dogs" in SCAHA and CAHA that get embarrassed every year when it matters.  If rankings had predictive value, then the President's Trophy winner would be the odds-on favorite to win the Stanley Cup every year.   In fact, over the last 30+ years the winner of the President's Trophy has gone on to win the Stanley Cup exactly 8 times.  If anything, being the top-ranked team in the NHL is highly predictive of *not* winning when it matters, even in the far more data-rich environment of the NHL.

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Re: PeeWee A 2018/2019
« Reply #155 on: December 12, 2018, 11:20:06 AM »
 [font=]And they really don’t mean shit when all the data isn’t entered. Most of the teams don’t even have all the games entered.[/font]

socalhockeydad

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Re: PeeWee A 2018/2019
« Reply #156 on: December 12, 2018, 11:21:21 AM »
Lets clarify rankings...


Do they mean shit when playing a team lower or higher than you? Of course...because thats life. Anything can happen. #1 ranked team in any sport can lose to the #20 ranked team any given sunday.


With that being said...rankings, and we are talking about MHR, are based on an algorithm that gets better as the season goes on. It calculates rankings based on who you played and the score. So, it actually is a great tool to see where your team measures up against CA and national teams.


Also, more and more tournaments are using MYR as a deciding factor of admission or not. That is more on the Tier level but its still becoming a thing.


So in summary...rankings dont matter when it comes to the actual game. Welcome to life.


Rankings do matter when it comes to everything else in life.


Obviously rankings are important for playoff seeding in any league.  But you asserted that they are also predictive of results. Not with the kinds of data sets you are talking about.  Especially not when it comes to national rankings at for example the PWA and PWAA levels. 


Let me give you a real-world example without naming all the "top dogs" in SCAHA and CAHA that get embarrassed every year when it matters.  If rankings had predictive value, then the President's Trophy winner would be the odds-on favorite to win the Stanley Cup every year.   In fact, over the last 30+ years the winner of the President's Trophy has gone on to win the Stanley Cup exactly 8 times.  If anything, being the top-ranked team in the NHL is highly predictive of *not* winning when it matters, even in the far more data-rich environment of the NHL.

Actually it was justanotherhockeyparent that said that.
« Last Edit: December 12, 2018, 11:21:45 AM by socalhockeydad »

DEFENDERS

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Re: PeeWee A 2018/2019
« Reply #157 on: December 12, 2018, 11:47:42 AM »
 MHR: California Top 10
LA Jr Kings (#1) AA: all games entered.
Anaheim Ice Dogs (#1) AA: all games entered.
San Diego Jr Gulls (#1) AA: 6 games not entered.
Ontario Empire AA: 5 games not entered.
Golden State Elite Eagles (#2) AA: 1 game not entered.
Anaheim Ice Dogs (#2) AA: 5 games not entered.
Anaheim Jr Ducks (#1) AA: 4 games not entered.
California Wave AA: 5 games not entered.
Santa Clara Blackhawks AA: 4 games not entered.
California Wave (#1) A: all games entered.
So yes these rankings don’t’ mean shit.
« Last Edit: December 12, 2018, 11:48:27 AM by DEFENDERS »

OCHockeyDad07

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Re: PeeWee A 2018/2019
« Reply #158 on: December 12, 2018, 11:49:52 AM »
[font=]And they really don’t mean shit when all the data isn’t entered. Most of the teams don’t even have all the games entered.[/font]


for PW A, this thread, it seems all games are entered?

socalhockeydad

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Re: PeeWee A 2018/2019
« Reply #159 on: December 12, 2018, 11:56:10 AM »
MHR: California Top 10
LA Jr Kings (#1) AA: all games entered.
Anaheim Ice Dogs (#1) AA: all games entered.
San Diego Jr Gulls (#1) AA: 6 games not entered.
Ontario Empire AA: 5 games not entered.
Golden State Elite Eagles (#2) AA: 1 game not entered.
Anaheim Ice Dogs (#2) AA: 5 games not entered.
Anaheim Jr Ducks (#1) AA: 4 games not entered.
California Wave AA: 5 games not entered.
Santa Clara Blackhawks AA: 4 games not entered.
California Wave (#1) A: all games entered.
So yes these rankings don’t’ mean shit.


So are you saying that if you look at the CA rankings above and compare them to MYR rankings there should be a big difference based on games not entered? Are there teams above that should be higher or lower based on counting all games? Because when I look at the above and compare to CAHA / SCAHA it seems pretty spot on....

alfirst

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Re: PeeWee A 2018/2019
« Reply #160 on: December 12, 2018, 12:20:18 PM »
Wow, hot stuff on rankings... Should we throw in school ratings too?.. I personally see both parts of argument - it is something to look at for the lack of anything else - as it's still based on some math - but at the same time the sample is relatively small + it's just kids sport. On NHL level - President Trophy is a regular season winner which is worth something (say, in European football/soccer it's only regular season, no play-offs) and play-off is a different beast. Still, one can't say that some shitty team wins regular season - 82 games, not happening. Bets of 7 series - different ball game.   


Meanwhile, during last week Kings 2 (predicted to start losing) posted another upset - now they beat Heat (who became cold all of a sudden) - which allowed them to remain in a play-off spot. They have 3 games vs 3 very good teams now in a row - so we'll see how that goes.
Goldrush 1 came out of the woods with consecutive decisive victories over GR 2 and Ducks 2 - and now they (with arguably toughest schedule of all) have a claim for a play-off spot.
I think - 2 spots are open. As Wave 1, Kings 1, Mariners, Flyers, Heat (unless they continue to fall of the cliff) will qualify. GR 2 should qualify as well as all games they have left are against much weaker opponents (Kings 2  - question mark)
So 2 spots are left - and contenders for those now are in no particular order - Gulls 1, Kings 2 (maybe), GR 1, and maybe Ducks 2. I do not count Bears as they now enter "real" schedule. And teams that already have 5 losses probably should start preparing for the next season as well.


On a Wave 1 team - they definitely belong to AA level - I heard it was parents/coaches decision not to play there (as someone said here - "not to repeat mistake").
Now - if they just wanted a banner for winning the division and/or feel they are developing playing Saints and Reigns of the world (as they also have light schedule - playing not too many games vs other top teams) - that's on them. Be it...[size=78%]     [/size]

Strawman

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Re: PeeWee A 2018/2019
« Reply #161 on: December 12, 2018, 01:51:55 PM »
MHR: California Top 10
LA Jr Kings (#1) AA: all games entered.
Anaheim Ice Dogs (#1) AA: all games entered.
San Diego Jr Gulls (#1) AA: 6 games not entered.
Ontario Empire AA: 5 games not entered.
Golden State Elite Eagles (#2) AA: 1 game not entered.
Anaheim Ice Dogs (#2) AA: 5 games not entered.
Anaheim Jr Ducks (#1) AA: 4 games not entered.
California Wave AA: 5 games not entered.
Santa Clara Blackhawks AA: 4 games not entered.
California Wave (#1) A: all games entered.
So yes these rankings don’t’ mean shit.


So are you saying that if you look at the CA rankings above and compare them to MYR rankings there should be a big difference based on games not entered? Are there teams above that should be higher or lower based on counting all games? Because when I look at the above and compare to CAHA / SCAHA it seems pretty spot on....


I can't answer that particular question, but the CAHA and MHR ranking systems are apples and oranges. Completely different methodologies, in addition to the fact that MHR relies on self-reporting by teams (so lots of garbage in, garbage out at the AA level).  IMO the MHR rankings are virtually meaningless for California AA teams unless there are local teams that are playing really significant numbers of out-of-state games and everyone is fully reporting their results, and even then they are mainly useful for drunken amusement and parking lot shit-talk.

TheFourthA

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Re: PeeWee A 2018/2019
« Reply #162 on: December 12, 2018, 03:31:39 PM »
So what part of the Cal rankings for AA does not pass your eye test, because the Flight 1 rankings look spot on.

Landshark

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Re: PeeWee A 2018/2019
« Reply #163 on: December 12, 2018, 04:21:35 PM »
Rankings are narcissism in numerical form. If they make you happy and you feel the need to defend them, look in the mirror


If they are a harmless hobby that stirs your evening adult beverage bottoms up.

trans4761

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Re: PeeWee A 2018/2019
« Reply #164 on: December 13, 2018, 08:49:06 AM »
On what basis do you say that? Are you also saying the Wave 1 team doesn't deserve to be ranked as the top team in PW A?
Experiance..   Not saying they are the best or not.


Thay are a  very good team.  Could they beat some PW AA teams? Probably.   Can they get their asses handed to them by most PW AA teams ?, probably.  Rankings are computer algorithms.   Few years ago, another Wave team won States.  There were a California team that they had beat several times and was still ranked ahead of them.  Also a few teams that they had beaten in tournaments that were also ranked higher.


If it makes you feel good, thump your chest for now.


RANKINGS DONT MEAN SHIT


When someone says rankings don't mean shit, it usually means their team sucks...


If the rankings of your 12 year old make you feel like a well endowed porn star, who am I to judge, pewee.


But if I was ranking,  I would bet that you would win the #1 ranked douche on your team.