I tend to agree that there aren’t enough kids for tons of AAA teams, but using what you see at tryouts is a terrible metric.
Ummmm......what metric would be useful? If you want your kid to play AAA and you think you kid is good enough shouldn't you attend a tryout? Everyone makes sacrifices like travel and cost but if you are not willing to even show up then what's the argument about. I could see the argument that CAHA is limiting opportunities if there were 50-60 kids showing up at all the AAA tryouts. That might signal the need for expansion but if there doesn't seem like there is enough interest?
Everyone knows that the teams are primarily picked before tryout. Often the coaches are watching the actual tryout for 10 minutes at most. This goes for most AA teams as well, although there are certainly teams that have a much smaller base to pull from then the Kings and Ducks. I don't really blame the coaches for this, but realistically, when there isn't a noticeable difference between a number of kids, are you going to take the kid who already played for you for 1-3 years, and you know what you can expect from them in games and practices, or are you going to go with the kid who might be marginally better, but you're not really sure.
I know of kids who played AAA for years, then were displaced, and now playing in AA didn't move the needle much. Also seen AAA kids from one club, get cut, then call the other teams coach, and essentially walk onto that roster.
Most of the bubble kids who make these teams have been auditioning for a number of years at the club. They attend stick times and clinics and camps there, and they are already known.
I think people have this idea that AAA players must truly be a notch above AA, but in California for the most part, the separation between kids at the top of their AA teams and a AAA isn't very far, if anything at all. AAA and AA results, as with hockey in general, is often driven by the top few players from each team. AAA teams certainly have more overall consistency of depth, but then again there are 3 of them at age group.
There are certainly kids who jump off the ice, and/or have the reputation as being offensive juggernauts. Those come around from time to time and can make any roster they want, but for all the reasons previously discussed, the families want to stay with the clubs and coaches they are already at rather than join the hordes at the Ducks, Kings & Sharks.