Peewee AA 2017-2018

[OneandDone]

I find it interesting that some match ups from San Jose are being repeated.  What's the point of that?

SCAHA and CAHA are two different organizations - supposedly...  SCAHA isn't going to recognize the two tier system from CAHA so there will be games on the SCAHA schedule that will be blowouts as every Southern (SCAHA) team will likely have to play every other South team for meaningless SCAHA games.  CAHA is what matters at AA.

[Icelife]

Can anyone enlighten me about how CAHA weekends work? Do they play starting Friday day to pull out of school or do they play Saturday and Sunday?
Thanks!

[Rainman]

from previous experience, they can start as early as 3pm on Friday.

[Icelife]

Thanks, do we have any idea when schedules come out?

[MO-ICETIME]

Thanks, do we have any idea when schedules come out?

I have to imagine it's going to be the last week of preseason, with the talk of a few teams dropping potentially. They will still have to be clear on 1. are they dropping teams? 2. if they drop 4 will they still flight it, and 3. if they do flight the division, what is the breakup going to be?

[lcadad]

I was able to look at some stats for the weekend and do a little analysis.  I will be the first to admit that I don't fully trust these numbers, as there are more than a few that are suspect.  For example, there are numerous cases where it looks like a game is missing, or in the case of the Saints1, there was only stats for 1 game.  Of course what would be more telling, would be the shots for and against, but those weren't available. 


What was available was the total shots for each goalie, for the purposes of deriving their Sv%, and that's the basis of these. 


Again, I will be the first to admit that I had to take an educated guess in a few cases that there was a game missing because the numbers were suspiciously low.  If not, then there might be a team or 2 that are lights out defensively, and I've unfairly underestimated them in this analysis, but there's no way to know for certain.  I had to go with my gut that there was a game missing, and I've noted those cases. 


Obviously, the other thing that can be misleading here, is that we all know that some teams had a tougher schedule than others.  But for the most part, this does reflect what was seen in competition, regarding the relative strength of the teams with only a few outliers which can typically be explained by either bad shot counting, or a team that played a particularly weak schedule.  I do think it shows that some teams have some pretty strong goaltenders. 


I also found that it supports what I already have stated which is that the Jr Flyers team are solid contenders.  I no longer have any interest in trying to advocate for or against teams that might be close to the bubble based on the Jamboree.  It's a game none of use should have to play.  CAHA said this was supposed to insure competition.  With no transparency or definition of the evaluation criteria, there is no excuse to exclude any team that has shown they can be competitive even if they lost games in the Jamboree, so long as those losses were within a goal or 2 of teams that are unanimously accepted as being top tier teams.  The number of shots teams gave up on average is a nice way to double check those assumptions and check for flukes.  Granted, it's a small sample size, but that's what you get when you decide to use 4 50 minutes runtime scrimmages to evaluation 18 teams in the 2nd week of the season.


I also spent a lot of time looking at the JD2 and GSE2, and I believe their results, albeit with some weaker teams interspersed with stronger ones, should also establish that they belong in Flight1.   We might further extend this to some of the other teams that people have pegged for Flight2.  It appears that this will extend into Pre-season, and some teams can just use those games to get ready for the season, while other teams have to play for their chance to make it into a Flight.


I've never thought the Flight system was a good idea, and without criteria from CAHA, I resent the situation entirely at this point, so I'm going to stop playing CAHA's game, as we have the SCAHA pre-season schedule to worry about.  In the case of my son's team (and perhaps everyone else is in the same boat?)  it's wonderful to find out that we are scheduled to play the same 3 Socal teams we just played at the Jamboree.   

As many others have opined previously, certainly there are some teams that have a good deal of information in regards to their situation, and the likelihood that this will be a long painful journey where they will suffer defeat upon defeat and with long odds against them getting enough value from that experience to make it worth it.  Plenty of people can attest that an experience like that can actually harm development.  The Jamboree was an expensive exercise in establishing that is the case for a number of teams, and if that was it's only purpose, that might be an OK tradeoff -- give those teams enough information to see that their situation is hopeless, so they don't spend an entire season coming to the same conclusion.

At this point it looks to me that if they were to Flight teams as previously planned, they will be denying 1 or more teams the chance to compete against a preponderance of other teams they very well might be able to beat.  That would be unfair at this point, and CAHA has the information that shows that to be the case, and they should not be flighting PeeweeAA this year, according to their own statement. 


A friend associated with another team pointed out to me something pretty amusing about the Flight system, should they go through with it. In Norcal, it seems to be that 3 of the 4 teams will be in Flight1.  Looks likely the Sharks will be the only Flight2 team in Norcal.  So during the non-CAHA competition, when the Socal teams are playing each other, what will the Sharks be doing?  Scrimmaging PeeweeA teams?  Traveling around the country for tournament play?  Just another example of how ill conceived this whole thing was in the first place.  Best wishes to all our friends and competitors, and my sincere wish that CAHA does the right thing at this point, forces down non-viable teams as they have done in the past, and let's the kids settle the rest of this the way it's always been settled -- in games and tournaments




 

Team	Shots against	Avg/game	Note
GSE1	45	15.00		* Seems to be missing a game
Gulls1	48	16.00		* Seems to be missing a game
Bears	64	16.00
Blackhawks	68	17.00
JrFlyers	68	17.00
GSE2	69	17.25
Ice Dogs	71	17.75
JD2	73	18.25
Sharks	73	18.25
JK1	55	18.33		* Seems to be missing a game
JK2	78	19.50
Saints2	59	19.67		* Seems to be missing a game
JD1	80	20.00
Saints1	21	21.00		Only 1 game
Reign	64	21.33		* Seems to be missing a game
Gulls2	90	22.50
OCHC2	95	23.75
OCHC1	97	24.25

[6607]

Where are the Jamboree stats and gamesheets available?

[Go Kings_26]

Icadad - seems like you may have some insider data as the stats are not publicly available.  Also, your recommendation only works if everyone has equal opportunity to play top tier teams - which they DID NOT.  It was pretty obvious which coaches had a conversation with CAHA before the Jamboree and who did not.  A few more games are needed to perform an adequate assessment.  I saw a team or two that did quite a bit of cherry picking, which led to some shots on net and goals.  Two things - one, the team that allowed this has some issues, and two, the team that plays this way is not gearing up for Top tier play.  I agree with an earlier post that probably 14 teams demonstrated enough to play the same tier.  As is, this just doesn't compute.  Too many variable allowed in the planning.....

[lcadad]

Ok, just to be clear, these are shots against. 


It stands to reason that if you played weaker teams, and you are strong, you should have given up less shots and produced more. 


A Cherry picking opponent is not going to lead to substantially more shots taken than normal, although it could lead to some goals, if said team has kids with the ability to take advantage of those opportunities.  I don't see how that would negate or influence a 4 game shot average. 

Otherwise, you are preaching to the choir.  I did get access to stats, as well as a lot of other information, I'm keeping to myself, but that speaks to the lack of transparency of this process.  We all know the schedule was engineered, and also that it would be impossible to actually produce one that would be fair. 


The evaluators were a select group of coaches, this we know.

What were the pre-Jamboree rankings upon which the schedule was predicated and how were these rankings surmised?



What was the criteria?


Upon what information was the evaluation to be based?


Which team was favored and how were the 2nd half jamboree games put together?


The fact is, only those involved know, and CAHA doesn't feel that any of this should be public.  If my kid's team team came out of the Jamboree 3-1 and still seemed to be a consensus Flight2 team, I would want the opportunity to prove they could compete in Flight1, and if that opportunity is not being provided, then I'd question the fairness of that too.  There is no reason whatsoever, not to provide a team with that opportunity at this point. 


My personal and highly educated belief based on Memorial Day play, knowledge of the roster of the majority of the teams and how the team came, along with the matchups and results from the Jamboree is that there are  4 categories of teams. 


A. A Step above everyone else:
2 Teams


B. In a dogfight against anyone else in B
10 Teams


C. A notch below B, but could improve enough to win games vs. Category B teams if they do
2-3 Teams


D. Best case scenario is improvement to C Status.  They would be smart to drop to A and may be forced to do so even if they don't want to.
3-4 Teams


The evidence from the Jamboree is that there are lot more teams in category B than CAHA expected.  I know there are several teams where coaches and perhaps parents believe they are in category A, but the results didn't show that. 


There were assumptions made about teams going into the Jamboree with no information or research to back them up, which the Jamboree showed were just wrong, and which also shows that Flighting Peewee AA this season would be unfair. 


It seems like the Bantam and Midget divisions are a bit more clear cut at least in terms of category A vs B, but my only basis for that is the discussion of results amongst parents I've talked to, and on the relevant Calhockey boards.  That is not an endorsement by me of Flighting.

[MO-ICETIME]

Icadad - seems like you may have some insider data as the stats are not publicly available.  Also, your recommendation only works if everyone has equal opportunity to play top tier teams - which they DID NOT.  It was pretty obvious which coaches had a conversation with CAHA before the Jamboree and who did not.  A few more games are needed to perform an adequate assessment.  I saw a team or two that did quite a bit of cherry picking, which led to some shots on net and goals.  Two things - one, the team that allowed this has some issues, and two, the team that plays this way is not gearing up for Top tier play.  I agree with an earlier post that probably 14 teams demonstrated enough to play the same tier.  As is, this just doesn't compute.  Too many variable allowed in the planning.....

I actually heard from a few people that all clubs had some type of discussions with CAHA around their Tier 2 teams and I suspected their was going to be some type of "Pre-season" ranking scale, which would dictate the 1st 2 games being preset.

[Hockey05]

The evidence from the Jamboree is that there are lot more teams in category B than CAHA expected.  I know there are several teams where coaches and perhaps parents believe they are in category A, but the results didn't show that. 

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We all knew this was going to happen, it is the first weekend of the season.  Frankly, I don't think we are really any further than before the weekend.  If anything, there are more questions. 
While I do not agree, I can't see them scrapping the system at this point.
I think they need to announce the flights by the 22nd at the latest so that people can make reservations, schedules can be coordinated  and they can plan accordingly. 

[Go Kings_26]

On another note...did anyone see the live stick thrashing during the Ducks 2/GSE 2 game?  Does anyone know how/if the kid was disciplined.  I saw the video and it sure looked over the top to me.  A few games suspension at a minimum. 

[Icelife]

There were so many intentional penalties and no calls it was a pathetic sight for those refs. Decidingly swinging a game from a win to a loss without a doubt. Not just speaking from my own kids teams but watching other games before and after ours. It was clear the Northern teams had an advantage with the calls and lack there of. Talk about phantom calls, it was blatant! Also watched our friends play and that game was single handedly decided by the refs and I think everyone at the rink on both sides, knew it. I certainly hope those things are taken into consideration when looking at score sheets because the refs were horrible. We had one game out of 4 called fair. I'm not saying it was all against just our team because frankly, our team deserved many more penalties than received and ultimately we got the win from it late in the game. SAD!

[Go Kings_26]

I hear you but the stick thrashing went on for a good ten seconds.  I've been in Youth hockey for 10 years and this was badddd.  Refs on the ground pulling the guy off.  It was the end of the game so they called it, but something needs to be done.

[lcadad]

Didn't see any mention of it on the CAHA website.