Peewee AA 2017-2018

[Go Kings_26]

Don't think this equation works here. Ducks 1 is a no brainer for flight 1. 

[M@sshole]

Quote from M@sshole: Three complete lines & three sets of D. Not sure if that constitutes "rostered a ton." Quick shifts and strong play for Shand and the boys will see plenty of ice time.




Hmmm, heard there were some upset parents that their kids on 3rd and 4th lines didn't get much ice time during jamboree weekend? 1st and 2nd lines saw quite a bit of ice time. Why are they  complaining? I am sure they were aware of this when they signed.

I'm a parent of one of those lower line forwards for OC1.  Our son wasn't happy but he is adjusting and with a year of AA play and some potential, he knows that if he wants to be trusted by the coach during crunch time, he needs to work hard and earn that trust.   He had a goal and an assist last Sunday but still has a long ways to go.  Can't speak for other parents, but they too may recognize that this is a special team and coach and whatever the issues, they are less than most other teams have.   The 3rd line on this team may, in time, equal other team's first lines.   It depends on the latent potential of the boys and their commitment to hard work.

Skates - Haha. Show me a parent that is 100% happy with their club/travel hockey experience !?! 

There were some late roster additions which were a surprise but it seems like the boys are all getting along well - which is where it counts.  Still shuffling the line combos to find the right chemistry - but will say that some of the potential "3rd or 4th line" players were out on power-play and penalty-kill teams on Sunday against Valencia and did just fine.  As parents I think there are times we all need a yoga class and a few cocktails to get us through the season! 

[NorcalDad]

Don't think this equation works here. Ducks 1 is a no brainer for flight 1.

The formula is weighed more heavily on your opponent's opponents.  Ducks1's opponent's opponents had an average winning percentage of 45.95 where the 10th place Ducks2 were 54.16.

[NorcalDad]

Not questioning your equation because I have no idea what the equation would look like but how would the Sharks AA and the Reign teams be above Santa Clara or GSE2? Both teams seemed like they were amongst the weakest teams at the jamboree after watching both teams play twice.

The formula weighs your opponent's opponents results more heavily.  The Blackhawks played OCHC2, whose opponents were all 25%, which dropped them down on comparison to the Sharks, whose worst opponent scored them 33%.


I wouldn't expect any formula to predict what the CAHA results would be

[Go Kings_26]

Norcal - I get the thought process but the variable not included in this formula is the schedule.  Had groups of teams played the same teams, this might work, but using the "eye ball" test, Ducks 1 should be flight one. 

[NorcalDad]

Norcal - I get the thought process but the variable not included in this formula is the schedule.  Had groups of teams played the same teams, this might work, but using the "eye ball" test, Ducks 1 should be flight one.

Can you explain this some more?  The formula (NCAA's) weighs your results, your opponent's results, and your opponent's opponent's results.  That seems to cover "schedule" pretty deeply, though the higher weight on the opponent's opponent's results makes your own schedule less important.  I took that as a good thing when you have a lot of teams playing a small number of games.

[skates]

Quote from M@sshole: Three complete lines & three sets of D. Not sure if that constitutes "rostered a ton." Quick shifts and strong play for Shand and the boys will see plenty of ice time.




Hmmm, heard there were some upset parents that their kids on 3rd and 4th lines didn't get much ice time during jamboree weekend? 1st and 2nd lines saw quite a bit of ice time. Why are they  complaining? I am sure they were aware of this when they signed.

I'm a parent of one of those lower line forwards for OC1.  Our son wasn't happy but he is adjusting and with a year of AA play and some potential, he knows that if he wants to be trusted by the coach during crunch time, he needs to work hard and earn that trust.   He had a goal and an assist last Sunday but still has a long ways to go.  Can't speak for other parents, but they too may recognize that this is a special team and coach and whatever the issues, they are less than most other teams have.   The 3rd line on this team may, in time, equal other team's first lines.   It depends on the latent potential of the boys and their commitment to hard work.

Skates - Haha. Show me a parent that is 100% happy with their club/travel hockey experience !?! 

There were some late roster additions which were a surprise but it seems like the boys are all getting along well - which is where it counts.  Still shuffling the line combos to find the right chemistry - but will say that some of the potential "3rd or 4th line" players were out on power-play and penalty-kill teams on Sunday against Valencia and did just fine.  As parents I think there are times we all need a yoga class and a few cocktails to get us through the season!

Of course they were out on the power plays and penalty kills last Sunday against Valencia. It was an expedition game that means nothing toward standings and an easy team. Wait till the CAHA weekends when the game counts.  Surprise there is now 20 players on that team. (PDR)

[Go Kings_26]

Norcal - NCAA measures Div 1 vs Div 1 etc.  You are making an assumption that all teams are equal, which they are not.  This is why your formula puts Ducks 1 in the second tier and Sharks/Saints in first.  It's kind of the chicken and egg, but regardless, doesn't work.  Had all teams equally played tier 1/2 teams, maybe it works, but not here.

[NorcalDad]

Norcal - NCAA measures Div 1 vs Div 1 etc.  You are making an assumption that all teams are equal, which they are not.  This is why your formula puts Ducks 1 in the second tier and Sharks/Saints in first.  It's kind of the chicken and egg, but regardless, doesn't work.  Had all teams equally played tier 1/2 teams, maybe it works, but not here.

Shouldn't the spirit of an evaluation be to treat all teams as equals at the start?


Did you see my updated ranking?  Sharks drop to 2nd flight.


Ducks1 had one of the lowest "opponent's opponents" scores, which is heavily weighed in the formula; the fact that their opponents had the best records wasn't enough to save them (though beating more of those opponents would have).  Saints1 had a good "opponent's opponents" score, and were able to make up more ground since they won 75% of their own games.


Again, it's just one formula.  But it's objective, which I think is a virtue.  It's also fun to remember that they're 11 and 12.

[Icelife]

The problem is the "evaluation" isn't just statistics. I think they were looking at how long each team was competititve. Not sure if you saw any other team besides your own child's, but my son wanted to watch his best friend play. Their team was leading the entire game until the end when an eronious penalty was called to put a team down by 2 kids with minutes to go. The opponent scores 1 to tie. Now it's, " let's move as slow as we can so we can absorb time off the running clock". Still down by 1 player, few seconds to go now and a Hail Mary to win the game. Didn't matter how many goals were scored, the game could have gone totally different if the phantom call (which everyone watching on both sides, couldn't figure out).
That's the problem with stats with this particular weekend. They are almost meaningless. Clubs that blown away by opponents, sure... But clubs that were always competitive and the outcome could have gone either way, that is what needs to be taken in consideration.


On another note, if Ducks 1 best the Saints 1 last week according to earlier posts and beat Ducks 2, wouldn't they rate higher on the scale?

[OCHockeyDad07]

Norcal - NCAA measures Div 1 vs Div 1 etc.  You are making an assumption that all teams are equal, which they are not.  This is why your formula puts Ducks 1 in the second tier and Sharks/Saints in first.  It's kind of the chicken and egg, but regardless, doesn't work.  Had all teams equally played tier 1/2 teams, maybe it works, but not here.

Shouldn't the spirit of an evaluation be to treat all teams as equals at the start?


Did you see my updated ranking?  Sharks drop to 2nd flight.


Ducks1 had one of the lowest "opponent's opponents" scores, which is heavily weighed in the formula; the fact that their opponents had the best records wasn't enough to save them (though beating more of those opponents would have).  Saints1 had a good "opponent's opponents" score, and were able to make up more ground since they won 75% of their own games.


Again, it's just one formula.  But it's objective, which I think is a virtue.  It's also fun to remember that they're 11 and 12.

I think the bottom line is it is early so you need to take the formula with a grain of salt.  Need a few more weeks of games for it to make sense.

[NorcalDad]

I think the bottom line is it is early so you need to take the formula with a grain of salt.  Need a few more weeks of games for it to make sense.

Code: [Select]

7) Teams will play minimum of four (4) games (any team may be asked to play a 5th game at the jamboree at the request of the evaluation committee).
8) The two weeks following the Preseason Evaluation Jamboree, teams are subject to being required to play further evaluation “prove me” game(s) within their respective leagues (SCAHA/NORCAL) if requested by the Evaluation Committee.




Have any teams been asked to play "prove me" games?  If not, seems like the evaluations are done.

[NorcalDad]

But clubs that were always competitive and the outcome could have gone either way, that is what needs to be taken in consideration.

I didn't see the game to which you refer.  Assuming the hail mary went in on an empty net, that's the coach's decision to take that risk to break a tie.  Maybe coming back from a 2-goal deficit at the end of a game shows that the other team is tenacious and can come together when they need to?  That coach clearly leads a great PP drill, right?


You're expecting a differing group of evaluators to take into account a nearly endless set of subjective factors like "bad" referees?   Sure, ref issues can change a game and coaches can be aggressive for the "W".  But what if "Super Star Timmy" had the flu that weekend?  What if "Speedy Sally" forgot to sharpen her skates?  "Junk Food Johnny" ate a greasy burger at Stanley's before the game?  What if the SCAHA kids were tired after their travel?  Did they play a game after a public skating session when the ice was all chewed up?


These are the subjective excuses that parents tell themselves and their kids on the ride home.  I've had kids lose opportunities from all of them.  We'll never know what criteria CAHA uses, but I would hope they'd be more subjective.


"Time of GWG" could be used, but what about a weak team that scores a freak goal early and holds off the other team due to bad refs, injuries, etc?  It's a huge rabbit hole.

[goonhockey]

this can't bode well -


https://stats.caha.timetoscore.com/oss-scoresheet?game_id=13920&mode=display

[highhardone]

this can't bode well -


https://stats.caha.timetoscore.com/oss-scoresheet?game_id=13920&mode=display

Nope and CAHA has just scheduled another "Prove Me" game this week for the Sharks to play Santa Clara AA. No way the Sharks come out of that game with a win. It's a terrible situation for the kids and parent to have to be in at this stage in pre-season.


Side note, that Stockton team is no joke. They would fair well against a number of AA teams.