Predictions for AA?

[cog254]

Jr Reign 18 AA went 0-4 at the Lake Forest tourney this weekend and had 3 G 24 GA

[Fowlmood]

Let's just draw district lines.  If you want to play, you must play in your city or region.

[Fowlmood]

You could also get rid of some of these requirements so that teams that should be in AAA, play in AAA. 

[jjyoung909]

Once the big 3 get the new rule that dropping a letter does not void the LOI this pesky problem of kids leaving will be averted.

I think the CAHA Board and presidents basically came at this whole thing with a couple main concerns:


1) An above-board coach and organization would drop their non-performing teams to Bantam A. CAHA clearly does not trust its club presidents to do the right thing so everyone gets summoned to San Jose for an audition. I guess the presidents are worried players would leave once the LOI has been voided and therefore can't be trusted to objectively evaluate their own teams. Personally, I doubt players leaving would happen in any great numbers. Most A teams have enough players by now. There is nowhere for the disgruntled AA player to go. Teams should play at the level they belong. Period.

2) CAHA created a rule mandating a AAA organization must have 2 AA teams if they want to keep the AAA team.

CAHA Rule 8.1.b states, "Member Associations fielding Tier I teams shall maintain a minimum of two (2) teams at the Tier II level in the current and previous season."

If we use the Jr. Reign as an example we can shed some light on the matter. They sent 3 AA teams to San Jose. The club also has an 18AAA team. The result of the weekend for the Riverside-based organization is:

12AA: 1-3

14AA: 1-3 (The one win was against the very weak JK2 squad. The scores of the games they lost were 1-9, 0-7 and 0-3).

16AA: 1-1-2


I believe the Reign also have ab 18AA team but they weren't in San Jose. I don't know how good they are but this team alone will not be enough to maintain the club's AAA eligibility.


Based on performance at the evaluation jamboree, one could make the argumnent that all three participating teams should be dropped to A. That, however, would jeopardize the viability of the 18AAA team. CAHA appears to want the Jr. Reign to keep their AAA eligibility. For this reason we have a silly new AA tier scheme. Jr. Reign teams get to stay "AA" and no LOIs are voided. It's a brilliant plan.
The problem is that several other teams will be going down with the ship. I feel bad for the "bubble" teams that will be needed to complete a 2nd flight system to accomodate the Jr. Reign.


I really hope I am wrong. If CAHA comes out and tells the Jr. Reign to drop to A I will be the first to congratulate them.

Drops Mic and walks off stage.


Perfect

[Puck Yeah]

Jr Reign 18 AA went 0-4 at the Lake Forest tourney this weekend and had 3 G 24 GA

OUCH!

[SkatingDad]

This will be talked about all year! 


There are 4-5 teams that clearly belong in the top group.  There are 3-4 that clearly belong in the second group.  That leaves 7-9 teams in limbo.  Teams will be placed in the wrong group.


This rule is almost as stupid as the PK icing rule change.   

[Pistonkev]

This will be talked about all year! 


There are 4-5 teams that clearly belong in the top group.  There are 3-4 that clearly belong in the second group.  That leaves 7-9 teams in limbo.  Teams will be placed in the wrong group.


This rule is almost as stupid as the PK icing rule change.

That icing on the PK is so stupid. So our kids are just trying to feather it out and just goes to their D

[SkatingDad]

This will be talked about all year! 


There are 4-5 teams that clearly belong in the top group.  There are 3-4 that clearly belong in the second group.  That leaves 7-9 teams in limbo.  Teams will be placed in the wrong group.


This rule is almost as stupid as the PK icing rule change.

That icing on the PK is so stupid. So our kids are just trying to feather it out and just goes to their D

Everyone should just ice it anyway, do a line change and be done with it...

[BlindZebras]

Interestingly, it does not appear this rule applies to Tier 1, or at least I didn't see it enforced. Totally lame.

[Nowhearthis]

Okay, 1st annual CAHA Jamboree Festival Extravaganza is over and here are the raw results (Bantam data from stats sheet).


In order by win/loss:




Flight 1:
OC1
GSE 2
Sharks
Empire
Bears
GSE 1
Wave 2
Ducks 1
Mariners


Flight 2:
Valencia
OC2
Blackhawks
Wave 1
Saints
Ducks 2
Jr. Reign
Kings 1
Kings 2




Recognizing simple match up differences, here is the rankings by Goal Differentials:


Flight 1:
OC1
GSE 2
Empire
Sharks
Bears
Blackhawks
GSE 1
Wave 2
Wave 1



Flight 2:
Ducks 1
Valencia
OC 2
Saints
Kings 1
Mariners
Ducks 2
Kings 2
Jr. Reign



Before any first order schedule strength analysis, the indications show a clear top 5 and a bottom 3.  10 in the middle. Looks like a regular league.

[KickSave]

A shot differential analysis should be interesting, too.

[Pistonkev]

Okay, 1st annual CAHA Jamboree Festival Extravaganza is over and here are the raw results (Bantam data from stats sheet).


In order by win/loss:




Flight 1:
OC1
GSE 2
Sharks
Empire
Bears
GSE 1
Wave 2
Ducks 1
Mariners


Flight 2:
Valencia
OC2
Blackhawks
Wave 1
Saints
Ducks 2
Jr. Reign
Kings 1
Kings 2




Recognizing simple match up differences, here is the rankings by Goal Differentials:


Flight 1:
OC1
GSE 2
Empire
Sharks
Bears
Blackhawks
GSE 1
Wave 2
Wave 1



Flight 2:
Ducks 1
Valencia
OC 2
Saints
Kings 1
Mariners
Ducks 2
Kings 2
Jr. Reign



Before any first order schedule strength analysis, the indications show a clear top 5 and a bottom 3.  10 in the middle. Looks like a regular league.

You can't just use wins and losses and Goal differential is a joke if you got to play Kings 2 or Ducks 2 or Wildcats.   

[Teemu8]

Now that half the games are played... here is my predictions on who is in each flight:


Top flight:
1.  Bears
2.  Blackhawks
3.  Sharks
4. GSE1
5.  GSE2
6.  Kings 1
7.  OC 1
8.  Ducks 1
9.  Wave 1
10. Empire


Bottom flight:
1.  Saints
2.  Reign
3.  Kings 2
4.  OC 2
5.  Ducks 2
6.  Flyers
7.  Mariners
8.  Wave 2


Now before you all yell at me about who is ranked above who... these are in no particular order.

I'm still sticking with this list... although an argument can be made for Wave 2 to bump someone out.


For a legit analysis you need to see the team's play... some of those team's were tiny and will get blown off the ice by the big boys (OC1, bears, Empire, GSE)  mariners won a few games against weak team's but got destroyed by OC1.  OC had more short handed shots then the mariners had total shots.

[Pistonkev]

Here is the top 5 teams I saw.

GSE1
Bears
OC1
GSE2
Sharks

How did teams fair vs them? Was it close were you beaten down?

[Nowhearthis]

Agreed, but this is the data available publicly to work with.   Looking at first order sched. strength of the 36 games, not a lot changes.  (Because only Sharks and OC2 had the clearly beneficial overall schedule.)


At any rate, processing that through, the top 5/6 group remains same and the bottom 3 are same. 


Middle ground moves around a bit, which is normal for only 4 game sequence.  That is why they needed evaluators.