Predictions for AA?

[Miss My 48080]

I think the CAHA Board and presidents basically came at this whole thing with a couple main concerns:


1) An above-board coach and organization would drop their non-performing teams to Bantam A. CAHA clearly does not trust its club presidents to do the right thing so everyone gets summoned to San Jose for an audition. I guess the presidents are worried players would leave once the LOI has been voided and therefore can't be trusted to objectively evaluate their own teams. Personally, I doubt players leaving would happen in any great numbers. Most A teams have enough players by now. There is nowhere for the disgruntled AA player to go. Teams should play at the level they belong. Period.

2) CAHA created a rule mandating a AAA organization must have 2 AA teams if they want to keep the AAA team.

CAHA Rule 8.1.b states, "Member Associations fielding Tier I teams shall maintain a minimum of two (2) teams at the Tier II level in the current and previous season."

If we use the Jr. Reign as an example we can shed some light on the matter. They sent 3 AA teams to San Jose. The club also has an 18AAA team. The result of the weekend for the Riverside-based organization is:

12AA: 1-3

14AA: 1-3 (The one win was against the very weak JK2 squad. The scores of the games they lost were 1-9, 0-7 and 0-3).

16AA: 1-1-2

I believe the Reign also have ab 18AA team but they weren't in San Jose. I don't know how good they are but this team alone will not be enough to maintain the club's AAA eligibility.

Based on performance at the evaluation jamboree, one could make the argumnent that all three participating teams should be dropped to A. That, however, would jeopardize the viability of the 18AAA team. CAHA appears to want the Jr. Reign to keep their AAA eligibility. For this reason we have a silly new AA tier scheme. Jr. Reign teams get to stay "AA" and no LOIs are voided. It's a brilliant plan.
The problem is that several other teams will be going down with the ship. I feel bad for the "bubble" teams that will be needed to complete a 2nd flight system to accomodate the Jr. Reign.


I really hope I am wrong. If CAHA comes out and tells the Jr. Reign to drop to A I will be the first to congratulate them.

Drops Mic and walks off stage.


Perfect

Just noticed the president of the Jr. Reign is also a CAHA Board member. It's all starting to make sense...

[MO-ICETIME]

He's been doing this well before he was on the CAHA board.

[SkatingDad]

Which is why most people think that Kings 2 are the worst team

Can anyone shed some light on how a team can go from being in the PW AA State finals to arguably one of the worst team in Ban AA?  I would not expect an 04 team to be one of the top teams but, they should be a mid pack team.

[BBNMCAS]

Which is why most people think that Kings 2 are the worst team

Can anyone shed some light on how a team can go from being in the PW AA State finals to arguably one of the worst team in Ban AA?  I would not expect an 04 team to be one of the top teams but, they should be a mid pack team.

I don't know if I'm the only one to notice but the size of most of the 04' players is drastically smaller than the 03' players this time last year. Most of the 04' players I've seen are the same height and weight as 2nd year Peewees and some are the same size as 1st year Peewees. This size difference plays a huge role in strength that translates into speed and puck protection capabilities. The other reason is checking. The PW AA state champs didn't have to deal with 5' 6" 150 lbs. of 13 or 14 year old checking them off the puck. They can have all the creativity and passing but without knowing when and how to check they're not going to be effective against many if any of the Bantam AA Major teams. Just my $0.02.

[Puck Yeah]

Which is why most people think that Kings 2 are the worst team

Can anyone shed some light on how a team can go from being in the PW AA State finals to arguably one of the worst team in Ban AA?  I would not expect an 04 team to be one of the top teams but, they should be a mid pack team.

There is a simple explanation.  It is Bantams, the game has changed.


It also explains why you don't want your player to peak at PW.  There is lots of hockey left after 12 years old.

[Teemu8]

Which is why most people think that Kings 2 are the worst team

Can anyone shed some light on how a team can go from being in the PW AA State finals to arguably one of the worst team in Ban AA?  I would not expect an 04 team to be one of the top teams but, they should be a mid pack team.

With the exception of that giant goalie they are just so darn tiny.  For whatever reason the difference between 03s and 04s just seems to be so much more drastic than in other age groups.  I actually fear for the safety of some of those 04 teams when they play against OC1, Empire, or bears.

[SkatingDad]

Which is why most people think that Kings 2 are the worst team

Can anyone shed some light on how a team can go from being in the PW AA State finals to arguably one of the worst team in Ban AA?  I would not expect an 04 team to be one of the top teams but, they should be a mid pack team.

I don't know if I'm the only one to notice but the size of most of the 04' players is drastically smaller than the 03' players this time last year. Most of the 04' players I've seen are the same height and weight as 2nd year Peewees and some are the same size as 1st year Peewees. This size difference plays a huge role in strength that translates into speed and puck protection capabilities. The other reason is checking. The PW AA state champs didn't have to deal with 5' 6" 150 lbs. of 13 or 14 year old checking them off the puck. They can have all the creativity and passing but without knowing when and how to check they're not going to be effective against many if any of the Bantam AA Major teams. Just my $0.02.

I agree that first year Bantams are always going to struggle.  However, the WW won the PW AA state championship (against the Kings) they are also small with 2 exceptions, they are a mid pack team as you would expect. Did the Kings lose players or a coaching change?  They should be a mid pack team...

[KickSave]

They split AAA into Minor and Major, and you never hear a minor AAA team complaining they aren't major. This flight thing, I think, is an attempt at doing the same. In the end, it really may be a good thing for Bantams, at least. But egos will be hurt.

[Maverick]

Which is why most people think that Kings 2 are the worst team

Can anyone shed some light on how a team can go from being in the PW AA State finals to arguably one of the worst team in Ban AA?  I would not expect an 04 team to be one of the top teams but, they should be a mid pack team.

There is a simple explanation.  It is Bantams, the game has changed.


It also explains why you don't want your player to peak at PW.  There is lots of hockey left after 12 years old.

This!

[Stanley]

Now that half the games are played... here is my predictions on who is in each flight:


Top flight:
1.  Bears
2.  Blackhawks
3.  Sharks
4. GSE1
5.  GSE2
6.  Kings 1
7.  OC 1
8.  Ducks 1
9.  Wave 1
10. Empire


Bottom flight:
1.  Saints
2.  Reign
3.  Kings 2
4.  OC 2
5.  Ducks 2
6.  Flyers
7.  Mariners
8.  Wave 2

You should bump Ducks one out. Bears destroyed them 7-0 at one point till they backed off.

In my opinion, Kings1, a pure 03 team, lost 3 games to mainly 03-heavy teams, couldn't beat a pure 04 team in Wave2 (lost to Wave2 also in a scrimmage 2 weeks ago) should be placed in the lower flight. Also, Ducks1 are likely middle of the pack and not a top flight team, but lets be honest here, hell will freeze over before CAHA let all 4 Kings and Ducks team be seeded in the lower flight.

Here's my list:

GSE2
Bears
OC1
GSE1
Empire
Blackhawks
Sharks
Wave1
Ducks1
Wave2
Kings1
Flyers
Saints
Mariners
OC2
Ducks2
Jr Reign
Kings2

Flyers are the odd team here... Losing to Mariners but tying GSE1!? They seem a bit all over the board...

That looks about right, although one could arguably play around with the order of Wave 1, Ducks 1, and Wave 2.  However, as others have pointed out, there is zero chance that CAHA will put both JK teams in the lower flight where they belong.

[justanotherhockeydad]

Can anyone shed some light on how a team can go from being in the PW AA State finals to arguably one of the worst team in Ban AA?  I would not expect an 04 team to be one of the top teams but, they should be a mid pack team.

I don't think is a matter of peaking out at PW, this BantamAA Kings2 team is just different from last yr's PWAA State Final Kings team. Out of 17 kids last year, 11 returned but their two top dogs went AAA. Also a new coach, who is legit in my opinion, plus a bunch of new kids... May take some time to get up to speed, but it's always going to be an uphill battle for all-04 first yr bantam teams...

[lcadad]

They split AAA into Minor and Major, and you never hear a minor AAA team complaining they aren't major. This flight thing, I think, is an attempt at doing the same. In the end, it really may be a good thing for Bantams, at least. But egos will be hurt.

Except that it is entirely different.  Major and Minor are for 100% birth year teams, because that is how AAA hockey is structured around the country and in Canada.


It would be great if there were more birth year teams, but not all clubs have the pool of kids that allow for birth year teams.     


From what I've heard, the Flight proposal came about due to "parent complaints" about having to travel to play teams that "weren't good enough to provide competition" and this was in essence a punitive system meant to discourage those teams from punching above their weight class, and simultaneously protecting the top Flight teams from ever having to play teams that are beneath them. 


Historically, many of the suspect teams happened to be composed of younger birth year teams, using Tier2 as a training ground prior to their jump to AAA.   Of course there have also been an even greater number of teams that were just completely overmatched that weren't these AAA-in-waiting teams, but the feeling coming from the play-up teams is that it doesn't matter if they lose all their games, because playing up to Squirt from Mite, and Squirt to Peewee is seasoning and preparation for the AAA tournaments they will play.    They literally have no incentive to stop the practice, and rather than just change the rules so these teams can no longer take a 90%+ roster and play up a division, CAHA came up with this unnecessary Flighting system. 


The irony is that it isn't even applicable to Bantam and U16 where the phenomenon of playing up doesn't exist, and it's also ill timed because they are not allowing the Mites to play up anymore (SCAHA rule 19.04) No 8U aged player may play up.

Coming off the 180 degree turn on CAHA weekends, it would have been far wiser to utilize the existing rules for a year and see how things stabilized, but instead we can all once again be test subjects for another CAHA experiment.

   

[1hockeydad]

They split AAA into Minor and Major, and you never hear a minor AAA team complaining they aren't major. This flight thing, I think, is an attempt at doing the same. In the end, it really may be a good thing for Bantams, at least. But egos will be hurt.

Except that it is entirely different.  Major and Minor are for 100% birth year teams, because that is how AAA hockey is structured around the country and in Canada.


It would be great if there were more birth year teams, but not all clubs have the pool of kids that allow for birth year teams.     


From what I've heard, the Flight proposal came about due to "parent complaints" about having to travel to play teams that "weren't good enough to provide competition" and this was in essence a punitive system meant to discourage those teams from punching above their weight class, and simultaneously protecting the top Flight teams from having to play teams from ever having to play teams that are beneath them. 


Historically, many of the suspect teams happened to be composed of younger birth year teams, using Tier2 as a training ground prior to their jump to AAA.   Of course there have also been an even greater number of teams that were just completely overmatched that weren't these AAA-in-waiting teams, but the feeling coming from the play-up teams is that it doesn't matter if they lose all their games, because playing up to Squirt from Mite, and Squirt to Peewee is seasoning and preparation for the AAA tournaments they will play.    They literally have no incentive to stop the practice, and rather than just change the rules so these teams can no longer take a 90%+ roster and play up a division, CAHA came up with this unnecessary Flighting system. 


The irony is that it isn't even applicable to Bantam and U16 where the phenomenon of playing up doesn't exist, and it's also ill timed because they are not allowing the Mites to play up anymore (SCAHA rule 19.04) No 8U aged player may play up.

Coming off the 180 degree turn on CAHA weekends, it would have been far wiser to utilize the existing rules for a year and see how things stabilized, but instead we can all once again be test subjects for another CAHA experiment.

   




[/quote


Umm.  Yes,  there are kids that play up in AAA u16. 

[lcadad]

Yes, I know that, but are there entire teams playing up for some strategic competitive reason?  I've never heard of such a thing.  With U15 national championships USA Hockey is actively discouraging the idea and encouraging birth year competition.

[fistocuffs]

Just for Funzies  here is a list of CA national championship teams (Tier I and Tier II)  - excluding the gals for this exercise 
and who they played.  Its been a while since we were competitive at the national level.  Not sure if "flighting" is a way to solve this drought

2009	Youth Tier II 14U	Frisco, Texas	Los Angeles Selects, CA	Allen Park Huskies, MI
2008	Youth Tier I 12U	Hackensack, New Jersey	Los Angeles Selects, CA	Detroit Honeybaked, MI
2007	Youth Tier II 14U	Buffalo, New York	California Stars, CA	Southern Connecticut Stars, CT
2006	Youth Tier II 14U	East Lansing, Michigan	Los Angeles Hockey Club, CA	Long Island Rebels, NY
2006	Youth Tier I 16U	Rochester, New York	California Wave, CA	New Jersey Devils, NJ
2006	Youth Tier I 14U	Rochester, New York	Los Angeles Selects, CA	Rochester Americans, NY
2004	Youth Tier II 16U	Ellenton, Florida	Long Beach Jr. Ice Dogs, CA	Ellenton Eels, FL
2003	Youth Tier I 16U	Marlboro, Massachusetts	Los Angeles Jr. Kings, CA	New Jersey Rockets, NJ
2003	Youth Tier I 14U	Buffalo, New York	California Wave 88's, CA	Shattuck-St. Mary's Sabres, MN
2002	Youth Tier I 14U	Colorado Springs, Colorado	Los Angeles Jr. Kings, CA	Madison Capitols, WI
2000	Youth Tier I 12U	Anchorage, Alaska	Los Angeles Junior Kings, CA	Detroit Little Caesars, MI
1997	Youth Tier II 14U	Bismarck, North Dakota	Los Angeles Wildcats, CA	North Andover Knights, MA