Predictions for AA?

[BlindZebras]

So much for numbers. Neither GSE team? Really?
That's about as useful as our LR Justice feature. Thanks for the face wash whoever you are, I'll go re-evaluate my life now...

[justanotherhockeydad]

I tried to compute the RPI from the Labor day tournament for 14AA and got the following for flight 1:

• California Wave 14AA-1
• Santa Clara Blackhawks U14AA
• Los Angeles Jr Kings 14AA-1
• Ventura Mariners 14AA
• Anaheim Jr Ducks 14AA-1
• California Golden Bears 14AA
• Empire Hockey Club 14AA
• Orange County Hockey Club 14AA-1
• San Jose Jr Sharks 14AA
• San Diego Saints 14AA

"The RPI takes a team's winning percentage, their opponent's winning percentage, and their opponent's opponent's winning percentage and factors them together to come up with a team's RPI. The only difference between the two is the weighting of each category. College basketball still uses 25%-50%-25%, while college hockey weights their RPI 25%-21%-54%."


Of course, that's without politics, so YMMV.

Any top flight list without GSE1 and GSE2 is pretty much garbage.

[area51]

I tried to compute the RPI from the Labor day tournament for 14AA and got the following for flight 1:

• California Wave 14AA-1
• Santa Clara Blackhawks U14AA
• Los Angeles Jr Kings 14AA-1
• Ventura Mariners 14AA
• Anaheim Jr Ducks 14AA-1
• California Golden Bears 14AA
• Empire Hockey Club 14AA
• Orange County Hockey Club 14AA-1
• San Jose Jr Sharks 14AA
• San Diego Saints 14AA

"The RPI takes a team's winning percentage, their opponent's winning percentage, and their opponent's opponent's winning percentage and factors them together to come up with a team's RPI. The only difference between the two is the weighting of each category. College basketball still uses 25%-50%-25%, while college hockey weights their RPI 25%-21%-54%."


Of course, that's without politics, so YMMV.

you just made Miss My's day! this will probably be the only time here son's team is mentioned in the Top Flight 

[Pistonkev]

I tried to compute the RPI from the Labor day tournament for 14AA and got the following for flight 1:

• California Wave 14AA-1
• Santa Clara Blackhawks U14AA
• Los Angeles Jr Kings 14AA-1
• Ventura Mariners 14AA
• Anaheim Jr Ducks 14AA-1
• California Golden Bears 14AA
• Empire Hockey Club 14AA
• Orange County Hockey Club 14AA-1
• San Jose Jr Sharks 14AA
• San Diego Saints 14AA

"The RPI takes a team's winning percentage, their opponent's winning percentage, and their opponent's opponent's winning percentage and factors them together to come up with a team's RPI. The only difference between the two is the weighting of each category. College basketball still uses 25%-50%-25%, while college hockey weights their RPI 25%-21%-54%."


Of course, that's without politics, so YMMV.

That is such a huge fail. 

[Teemu8]

I tried to compute the RPI from the Labor day tournament for 14AA and got the following for flight 1:

• California Wave 14AA-1
• Santa Clara Blackhawks U14AA
• Los Angeles Jr Kings 14AA-1
• Ventura Mariners 14AA
• Anaheim Jr Ducks 14AA-1
• California Golden Bears 14AA
• Empire Hockey Club 14AA
• Orange County Hockey Club 14AA-1
• San Jose Jr Sharks 14AA
• San Diego Saints 14AA

"The RPI takes a team's winning percentage, their opponent's winning percentage, and their opponent's opponent's winning percentage and factors them together to come up with a team's RPI. The only difference between the two is the weighting of each category. College basketball still uses 25%-50%-25%, while college hockey weights their RPI 25%-21%-54%."


Of course, that's without politics, so YMMV.

You left off 2 very big teams.... GSE 1 and 2

[Pistonkev]

I tried to compute the RPI from the Labor day tournament for 14AA and got the following for flight 1:

• California Wave 14AA-1
• Santa Clara Blackhawks U14AA
• Los Angeles Jr Kings 14AA-1
• Ventura Mariners 14AA
• Anaheim Jr Ducks 14AA-1
• California Golden Bears 14AA
• Empire Hockey Club 14AA
• Orange County Hockey Club 14AA-1
• San Jose Jr Sharks 14AA
• San Diego Saints 14AA

"The RPI takes a team's winning percentage, their opponent's winning percentage, and their opponent's opponent's winning percentage and factors them together to come up with a team's RPI. The only difference between the two is the weighting of each category. College basketball still uses 25%-50%-25%, while college hockey weights their RPI 25%-21%-54%."


Of course, that's without politics, so YMMV.

You left off 2 very big teams.... GSE 1 and 2

Yes who are top 4 teams no less.

[Teemu8]

If you take that list... replace Mariners and Saints with GSE1 and 2.. you probably got the top flight.

[BlindZebras]

In NorcalDad's defense, he did say he "tried".  Maybe the results were tongue in cheek.

[trans4761]

Lighten up, Francis.  I don't think the outcome of ANY of the SCAHA exhibitions will have ANY impact on the much-anticipated flight system.  Just curious, is this your first rodeo in Tier hockey?  In case you were wondering, posted scores have routinely been delayed throughout the years, which is one of the main reasons this site was created - to get scores.  So, no, it is not unreasonable to ask how teams did.  That's why we ask here.  Ask away.

DON'T CALL ME FRANCIS.....ERRRR BICKS..






I'LL KILL YOU !!

[BlindZebras]

 


  another fw...lol

[Miss My 48080]

From area51: you just made Miss My's day! this will probably be the only time here son's team is mentioned in the Top Flight

That's really funny. I am relieved to know the only thing you lost in San Jose were hockey games. Your sense of humor seems to be intact. GKG

[Miss My 48080]

Funny. You miss the point, though. You may not think the games have no meaning, but this is a bit of an exceptional year. Lots of folks say they don't think this, or they don't think that. Unfortunately, none of us really know the facts. You don't know. I don't know. It's speculation.

Bingo.  That's all it is.  Don't mean to be so dismissive but it's safe to say that a lot of this is just smoke and mirrors.  For instance, I don't care if either Kings 2 or Ducks 2 were the absolute worst teams in AA and most deservedly should be dropped to A.  It'll never happen because they're required to field 2 AA teams to support their AAA teams.  A lot of this is a foregone conclusion.  I'll go out on a limb here and predict that this year's AA will look A LOT like last year's AA, and will be shocked if they even implement a 2-flight system.

I hope you are correct. Last season may have not been perfect but I'd venture to say it was better than a somewhat subjective flight system could be. At least it removes the politics from the equation.

As for clubs needing to have two AA teams to support their AAA team, I think it's simply two AA teams at any level that would be sufficient. For example, the Gulls have just two AA teams in the club (according to their declarations on the SCAHA site) and both are Peewee. This appears to be enough to support their 14AAA and 16AAA teams. 

The Jr. Ducks are well-stocked with AA teams. It appears they have two teams each at the 12u, 14u and 16u levels. They declared an 18AA team as well. My thought is that, if need be, they could drop a AA team to A and be just fine. It wouldn't affect their Tier 1 eligibility.

The Jr. Kings (once again, according to their declarations on the SCAHA site) are not as well-stocked as the Ducks but could still afford to drop the weaker BTAA team. They declared two 14AA teams and two 12AA teams. Dropping a team would leave them with three AA teams - one above the minimum required.

Out in Riverside, the Jr. Reign have an 18AAA team. To support this they have four AA teams. They have 12AA, 14AA, 16AA and 18AA teams. They could drop their BTAA team and still have three AA teams so the Tier 1 team would be unaffected.

CAHA rules 8.1.b and 8.3 say that the clubs need two AA teams to support a Tier 1 team. The rules don't specify what level those teams must be.

What have I missed?

[NorcalDad]

I said "tried" because I didn't think the directions that I could find online were all that precise, and I sadly didn't check my work very well.


After revisiting the instructions and checking the math, how do you feel about this list?

• Golden State Elite 14AA-2
• San Jose Jr Sharks 14AA
• Orange County Hockey Club 14AA-1
• California Wave 14AA-2
• Empire Hockey Club 14AA
• Golden State Elite 14AA-1
• California Golden Bears 14AA
• Anaheim Jr Ducks 14AA-1
• Valencia Jr Flyers 14AA
• Ventura Mariners 14AA

This brings Wave2 and both GSE teams up, and knocks out the Blackhawks, Kings1, and Saints from flight 1.


Again, it's all math, with no politics.  We could only hope it was handled that well.

[nzone]

I said "tried" because I didn't think the directions that I could find online were all that precise, and I sadly didn't check my work very well.


After revisiting the instructions and checking the math, how do you feel about this list?

• Golden State Elite 14AA-2
• San Jose Jr Sharks 14AA
• Orange County Hockey Club 14AA-1
• California Wave 14AA-2
• Empire Hockey Club 14AA
• Golden State Elite 14AA-1
• California Golden Bears 14AA
• Anaheim Jr Ducks 14AA-1
• Valencia Jr Flyers 14AA
• Ventura Mariners 14AA

This brings Wave2 and both GSE teams up, and knocks out the Blackhawks, Kings1, and Saints from flight 1.


Again, it's all math, with no politics.  We could only hope it was handled that well.

Looks more like it but I think the Blackhawks will be in and the Mariners out. The last spot could be taken by either Flyers, Saints, Wave1 or Kings1 but Kings being the big club, we all know Kings1 will likely take that spot.

[Zam Dad]

I said "tried" because I didn't think the directions that I could find online were all that precise, and I sadly didn't check my work very well.


After revisiting the instructions and checking the math, how do you feel about this list?

• Golden State Elite 14AA-2
• San Jose Jr Sharks 14AA
• Orange County Hockey Club 14AA-1
• California Wave 14AA-2
• Empire Hockey Club 14AA
• Golden State Elite 14AA-1
• California Golden Bears 14AA
• Anaheim Jr Ducks 14AA-1
• Valencia Jr Flyers 14AA
• Ventura Mariners 14AA

This brings Wave2 and both GSE teams up, and knocks out the Blackhawks, Kings1, and Saints from flight 1.


Again, it's all math, with no politics.  We could only hope it was handled that well.

Looks more like it but I think the Blackhawks will be in and the Mariners out. The last spot could be taken by either Flyers, Saints, Wave1 or Kings1 but Kings being the big club, we all know Kings1 will likely take that spot.

I agree, the Blackhawks will more than likely be in the top flight. Of their 3 loses in San Jose, all were very close games against arguably the top teams in flight 1. They pass the eyeball test of being a big fast 03 heavy team.
I don't see the Saints making it in.  They were crushed by the 2 03 teams they played and also lost to Wave2.
That leaves Kings1, Flyers, Mariners, Wave1 and Wave2 fighting for 2 spots. (and really it seems like Kings1 will be in via all the chatter, so only 1 spot for the 4 remaining)
I think the Flyers are on the outside looking in with the loss to the Mariners in san jose. (I see they played last week though, any1 know the score of that game?)
Mariners play Ducks1 and Wave1 play Kings1.  2 very interesting games.  I wonder if CAHA will be watching? 

And lastly the Wave1 vs Wave2 conversation is interesting.  Have these two teams played each other yet this year?