Predictions for AA?

[Pistonkev]

I said "tried" because I didn't think the directions that I could find online were all that precise, and I sadly didn't check my work very well.


After revisiting the instructions and checking the math, how do you feel about this list?

• Golden State Elite 14AA-2
• San Jose Jr Sharks 14AA
• Orange County Hockey Club 14AA-1
• California Wave 14AA-2
• Empire Hockey Club 14AA
• Golden State Elite 14AA-1
• California Golden Bears 14AA
• Anaheim Jr Ducks 14AA-1
• Valencia Jr Flyers 14AA
• Ventura Mariners 14AA

This brings Wave2 and both GSE teams up, and knocks out the Blackhawks, Kings1, and Saints from flight 1.


Again, it's all math, with no politics.  We could only hope it was handled that well.

If you look at this list vs strength of schedule it's a darn good list. That being said I think it will just be one flight this year.

[Teemu8]

I said "tried" because I didn't think the directions that I could find online were all that precise, and I sadly didn't check my work very well.


After revisiting the instructions and checking the math, how do you feel about this list?

• Golden State Elite 14AA-2
• San Jose Jr Sharks 14AA
• Orange County Hockey Club 14AA-1
• California Wave 14AA-2
• Empire Hockey Club 14AA
• Golden State Elite 14AA-1
• California Golden Bears 14AA
• Anaheim Jr Ducks 14AA-1
• Valencia Jr Flyers 14AA
• Ventura Mariners 14AA

This brings Wave2 and both GSE teams up, and knocks out the Blackhawks, Kings1, and Saints from flight 1.


Again, it's all math, with no politics.  We could only hope it was handled that well.

If you look at this list vs strength of schedule it's a darn good list. That being said I think it will just be one flight this year.

Strength of schedule?  Look at the Blackhawks schedule... OC1 and Bears... and they played both close... Blackhawks are 100% a top flight team

[Pistonkev]

I said "tried" because I didn't think the directions that I could find online were all that precise, and I sadly didn't check my work very well.


After revisiting the instructions and checking the math, how do you feel about this list?

• Golden State Elite 14AA-2
• San Jose Jr Sharks 14AA
• Orange County Hockey Club 14AA-1
• California Wave 14AA-2
• Empire Hockey Club 14AA
• Golden State Elite 14AA-1
• California Golden Bears 14AA
• Anaheim Jr Ducks 14AA-1
• Valencia Jr Flyers 14AA
• Ventura Mariners 14AA

This brings Wave2 and both GSE teams up, and knocks out the Blackhawks, Kings1, and Saints from flight 1.


Again, it's all math, with no politics.  We could only hope it was handled that well.

If you look at this list vs strength of schedule it's a darn good list. That being said I think it will just be one flight this year.

Strength of schedule?  Look at the Blackhawks schedule... OC1 and Bears... and they played both close... Blackhawks are 100% a top flight team

You are correct my bad.

Blackhawks should be in there bump Flyers down or Wave. 

[NorcalDad]

I agree, the Blackhawks will more than likely be in the top flight. Of their 3 loses in San Jose, all were very close games against arguably the top teams in flight 1. They pass the eyeball test of being a big fast 03 heavy team.
I don't see the Saints making it in.  They were crushed by the 2 03 teams they played and also lost to Wave2.
That leaves Kings1, Flyers, Mariners, Wave1 and Wave2 fighting for 2 spots. (and really it seems like Kings1 will be in via all the chatter, so only 1 spot for the 4 remaining)
I think the Flyers are on the outside looking in with the loss to the Mariners in san jose. (I see they played last week though, any1 know the score of that game?)
Mariners play Ducks1 and Wave1 play Kings1.  2 very interesting games.  I wonder if CAHA will be watching? 

And lastly the Wave1 vs Wave2 conversation is interesting.  Have these two teams played each other yet this year?

The RPI formula for hockey weighs your opponent's opponent's records more heavily than either your record or your opponent's records.

[Pistonkev]

I agree, the Blackhawks will more than likely be in the top flight. Of their 3 loses in San Jose, all were very close games against arguably the top teams in flight 1. They pass the eyeball test of being a big fast 03 heavy team.
I don't see the Saints making it in.  They were crushed by the 2 03 teams they played and also lost to Wave2.
That leaves Kings1, Flyers, Mariners, Wave1 and Wave2 fighting for 2 spots. (and really it seems like Kings1 will be in via all the chatter, so only 1 spot for the 4 remaining)
I think the Flyers are on the outside looking in with the loss to the Mariners in san jose. (I see they played last week though, any1 know the score of that game?)
Mariners play Ducks1 and Wave1 play Kings1.  2 very interesting games.  I wonder if CAHA will be watching? 

And lastly the Wave1 vs Wave2 conversation is interesting.  Have these two teams played each other yet this year?

The RPI formula for hockey weighs your opponent's opponent's records more heavily than either your record or your opponent's records.

Thanks for the clarification.

[rmackintosh]

Yeah, Blackhawks should be in, and what everyone says about the Kings 1 team being in as well.


As far as the flight system in Bantam I have only rumors, but I am fairly confident there will NOT be only one flight this year...

[justanotherhockeydad]

Forget all the fancy formulas, if there's really going to be a split, I'm willing to bet my 'reality' list below is the sexiest to CAHA and will be the most likely scenario... My order of ranking may be debatable, but these are the teams that belong in their respective flight, according to CAHA at least.

Top Flight:
1 - GSE2 (or Bears)
2 - Bears (or GSE2)
3 - GSE1
4 - OC1
5 - Empire
6 - Blackhawks
7 - Sharks
8 - Ducks1
9 - Wave1
10 - Kings1

Lower Flight:
11 - Wave2
12 - Flyers
13 - Mariners
14 - Saints
15 - OC2
16 - Ducks2
17 - Jr Reign
18 - Kings2

[NorcalDad]

Strength of schedule?  Look at the Blackhawks schedule... OC1 and Bears... and they played both close... Blackhawks are 100% a top flight team

The formula weighs more heavily on your opponent's opponents.  For the Blackhawks, that includes several team with lower winning percentages:

• California Golden Bears 14AA opponents were 70.85%
• Empire Hockey Club 14AA opponents were 45.83%
• Los Angeles Jr Kings 14AA-2 opponents were 37.5%
• Orange County Hockey Club 14AA-1 opponents were 33.33%

so an average of 46.87%.  The Flyers would be able the Blackhawks at 48.91%. 

[NorcalDad]

If you look at this list vs strength of schedule it's a darn good list. That being said I think it will just be one flight this year.

Hey, let's make a bunch of teams travel to a jamboree so we can pick the top 10 teams, and then completely change our minds....

[Pistonkev]

If you look at this list vs strength of schedule it's a darn good list. That being said I think it will just be one flight this year.

Hey, let's make a bunch of teams travel to a jamboree so we can pick the top 10 teams, and then completely change our minds....

I think when you see how things played out like a Tyson punch things changed.

 I am sure they had the top flight picked before San Jose and now it's murky.

[Voice in ur head]

Everything was settled before the jubilee. The board will find a way to justify any decision they make. As long as the board has a vested interest in where teams land, it's always a disservice. The board should ne comprised of personnel who's only agenda is to make California hockey the best. But when the board is concerned about giving their clubs teams an advantage, this is what we have.

[rmackintosh]

If you look at this list vs strength of schedule it's a darn good list. That being said I think it will just be one flight this year.

Hey, let's make a bunch of teams travel to a jamboree so we can pick the top 10 teams, and then completely change our minds....

I think when you see how things played out like a Tyson punch things changed.

 I am sure they had the top flight picked before San Jose and now it's murky.

On the contrary...the top flight looks pretty well set except for the bottom couple of teams...and CAHA will fill them easily...whether with politically "correct" choices or teams that "should" be in--ie the Blackhawks, etc. You are likely kidding yourself if you think deciding a few bubble teams will make CAHA scrap the system. JMHO

[Stanley]

Hey I have a solution.  Let's have another jamboree this weekend to figure it all out!  How about splitting the games between Vacaville and KHS, with each team playing two more games at each place?

[The Hun]

I think it was 8-5

Not sure how much it matters, but that was hardly a "game". At some point, the Bears sent 4 players on the ice, and told the Ducks "ok guys, pretend that you are on a power-play". So the Ducks played for a few minutes 5 on 4, and scored a goal. Then the Bears told the Ducks "now it's our turn for PP", but since they took too many chances on aggressive plays, and not yet having a single practice, the Ducks scored a shortie.  And so it went back and forth.
Pond hockey at best.


So, yes, I think the next game at KHS this Saturday will be a "real" game, with actual periods and time constraints.

[area51]

could CAHA split the Filights 12/6 or 11/7? I think everyone can agree on the bottom 6 teams.