PeeWee A 2018/2019

[alfirst]

OK, I did some rough after-schedule projections and came up with the following:
 
I separated teams into play-off teams (now they are - Kings 1, Wave 1, Heat, Ducks 2, Gulls 2), "tough" teams (OC2, Wave 2, Gulls 1, Goldrush2, Flyers - have no idea on them, just based on their drop-off from AA), wanna-be play-off teams (Mariners, Bears, Ice Dogs, Goldrush1, Gulls 3, Condors, Empire), and finally participants - all the rest (7 teams)
Also - not sure what to make of Lady Ducks as now teams that play them have 16 games scheduled and teams that do not play them have 15. Does it mean those games do not count?...


 Anyway, Heat has the best schedule out of top 5 teams - just 4 games with tier 1-2 and 12 with other teams. Ducks 2 - toughest schedule  - 8/8.
Flyers have the best tier-2 schedule 4-12 (6 games with tier-3 though), GR2 - 5-10 with only 4 games out of 10 with "wanna-bees", having 6 easy games. Wave 2 here have toughest schedule - 7-9 (7 games with top-2 tiers)
 In tier-3 Empire, Ice Dogs and Gulls 3 are luckiest - 6-9 (or 10 if to include Lady Ducks) and Dogs with Empire have only 3 games vs their own tier (Gulls 3 have 4). Goldrush1 drew bad luck here - 10-5 (10 games with top 10 teams - not missing anyone).


What all this mean? Top 5 teams should easily qualify (well, Ducks 2 could not lose points to tier-3 and lower teams and need to win half of tough teams - quite probable). Next 3 play-off teams should come out of Flyers (again, have no idea how the team looks like - I know they lost their best players from Squirt A level), Gulls 1, Goldrush 2, OC2 and if chips falls right - Empire and Ice Dogs. Wave 2 and Gulls 3 somewhere in close pursuit. 22-24 points should be play-off barrier. If tier-2 teams won't be having too many upsets from tier-3 teams - then play-off level shifts towards 24+

That's my prediction - it is not set in stone and teams are yet to play. Would be nice to see if any "wanna-bees" make a run and challenge tier-2 teams. Tier-2 - with such a different schedule - fluctuating from 4-12 (12 being easier games) to 7-9 - could find themselves in different spots in standings.


Games start this weekend!

[Hockeycamper]

Correct games against the LD's are exhibition games and will not count towards a teams win-loss record.  However it is my understanding that the stats do count for the individual players.

[2 Cups in LA]

Alfirst, nice season predictions.  At the end of the year the cream will rise to the top.   Kings 1, Wave 1 and Flyers will battle for the top spot in the division.
 Ducks 2 will follow close behind (The upset team).  The rest of the division is irrelevant. 

[5lap5hot]

Correct games against the LD's are exhibition games and will not count towards a teams win-loss record.  However it is my understanding that the stats do count for the individual players.

I believe at the PW level the LD do count.  They did last year which was the first year that has happened.  That team went to the playoffs.  At Bantam it is only exhibition.

[lcadad]

Exactly.  The reason they don't count at Bantam is because the rule set of those games is incompatible:  Bantam boys is full check and girls is no check, so the games have to be played no check.

[alfirst]

I believe at the PW level the LD do count.  They did last year which was the first year that has happened.  That team went to the playoffs.  At Bantam it is only exhibition.



Well, if they do count - then some teams have 16 games and some 15 - so point wise it's not equal - they will have to deal with it somehow

[Hockeycamper]

Last season the LD's did compete at PWA, this year they are playing as an exhibition team only in order to have the flexibility to travel for girls tournaments with out having to forfeit games like they had to do last season.

[Rats13]

Well, if they do count - then some teams have 16 games and some 15 - so point wise it's not equal - they will have to deal with it somehow

There is a process to eliminate random extra games.  It can yield some strange results.  See:  Last year's squirt  BB playoffs.

[alfirst]

OK,


So 1st regular week is behind us and not knowing just Kings 1 result we can state that everything goes as "planned" - teams in 1st tier won vs teams below, teams in 2nd won as well (there was a tie in the only match up within that tier). And teams in a 3rd tier mostly lost while in the only in-tier match-up Mariners got a win.


One correction to my play-off point prediction - now as it looks like Lady Ducks do not count - 15 games per each team - then it should be 20-22 points play-off barrier, not 22-24.

[alfirst]

OK, 2nd week went by a script as well - tier 1 winning vs 2, 2 vs 3, 3 vs 4 with one exception - GR1 beat OC(2), and the latter probably does not belong to tier 2 - more like to tier 3 (there were some roster changes, I guess, figuring out who's playing AA and A in between Jamboree and regular season which might have depleted OC (2) A team).


Also, the only game between tier 1 teams ended up with Ducks 2 win vs Gulls 2. So the team with the toughest schedule among upper tier wins second game in a row now.


Games with Lady Ducks are accounted for in SCAHA standings - so if they do not count for play-off purposes, we need to do math exercise each time we look at it - for now Wave 1 and Ducks 1 got 2 extra points.   

[2 Cups in LA]

Alfirst, once again the only teams to watch are Kings 1, Wave 1, Flyers and JD 2 (the upset team).   The rest of the PWA division will battle to stay above 500 and at least of the half of the division will finish with losing records at the completion of the season.   Thank you CAHA for allowing PWA caliber kids try to play up and tread water.

[alfirst]

You might be right - but that does not mean other teams do not have their agenda or "project" to fulfill. And there are 8 play-off places - so there's some room there.


Plus, it is somewhat interesting to see how pre-season predictions play out and which teams would be able to progress the most towards the end of the season

[2 Cups in LA]

Alfirst, "You are correct"  The deluded PWA division,  a team with 5 wins at the end of the season can make the playoffs and then immediately exit the playoffs in the 1st round.  I've seen it happen last year.   What next SCAHA will hand out participation medals for showing up?  Thank you again CAHA for watering down the division.

[Rats13]

  Thank you again CAHA for watering down the division.

Did I miss something?  How did CAHA water down PWA?

[2 Cups in LA]

Rats13 "Apparently you did"  Have you watched some of those embellished PWAA teams?