PeeWee A 2018/2019

[2 Cups in LA]

SD hockey dad “Nice Rant”.    No need to swear on a family site.   Some of us just stating the reality of Of PW divisions.  I wish you an enjoyable 18-19 season for you & your little Gretsky!

[Gary Sargent]

10:52PM post time for SD Dad.  I know the feeling   


There were a few.... shocking results today.


Any incite?

[OCHockeyDad07]

10:52PM post time for SD Dad.  I know the feeling   


There were a few.... shocking results today.


Any incite?

What shocking results?  The OC win?  That was a surprise.

[2 Cups in LA]

"SCAHA Trolls"   All of the 1st week of Novembers games have been posted.   OC 1 finally won a game of which we all know and are probably surprised?  The cream of the division continues to remain at the top.  The Gulls teams are NOT what some think they are and the Heat is starting to cool off?   Treading water, teams 4 thru 11 in the standings.  The rest of the division is irrelevant. 

[alfirst]

Agreed, though with Heat again - they have very "permissible" schedule - a loss here and there would not hurt too much. And Gulls are all over the place...


I will "update my rankings" and play-off picture predictions after this week as some important match-up are coming up.... 

[Bear71]

Is it only me or does someone else picture a face to face conversation between Alfirst and 2 Cups in LA as the semi-final round in the Be All, End All Battle of Air Quotes?  Not sure which one wins, but whoever does advances to face Joey Tribbiani in "the final".

[JustAnotherHockeyParent]

Anyone have the Goldrush (1) vs. JK (1) score?

[2 Cups in LA]

SCAHA has posted Wave 1 & Flyers tied 1 to 1.    Maybe Flyers are better than some thought "Alfirst & Hockey Dad"?

[alfirst]

So after this week of play I have the following picture - which is somewhat different from early season prognosis:


1. Tier-1 teams - Wave 1, Kings 1, Flyers 1 (moving up from 2-tier), Heat


2. Tier-2 - "tough" teams - Ducks 2 (downgraded from T1), Goldrush 2, Gulls 1


3. Tier-3 - has all others but the weakest teams and disparity in standings could be significant here:
                Wave 2 (downgraded from T2), Gulls 2 (downgraded from T1 - my fault), Kings 2 (moving up), Goldrush 1, Ice Dogs, Ducks 1 (moving up), Bears, Mariners and Gulls 3


4. Tier-4 - everybody else - notably OC 2 (downgraded from T2 - my initial overestimation again), Empire and Condors downgraded from Tier-3


Standings do not reflect that picture to a full extent - mainly based on the schedule and bye weeks. Say, Kings 2 schedule will be getting tougher.


Play-off picture - first 4  - easy (and Heat + Flyers have the best schedule there)
2nd three - GR2 have the easiest schedule and if they hold their own should qualify.
                 Ducks 2 -  they have the toughest schedule and they are losing points here and there - so will depend on some Tier-3 teams luck schedule and cant' afford to lose anymore points vs Tier-3 teams.
                 Gulls 1 - big question as schedule is moderately tough and their results do not give a clear message.     


So that leaves 1-3 spots for Tier 3 teams to qualify for play-offs. And here there is a room for uncertainties... Wave 2 and GR 1 have the toughest schedules. No one really has the easiest. Kings 2 are doing great right now but their schedule suggests challenges. Gulls 2 surprisingly fell off - and at the risk of being criticized by other user here I might see them in Tier-4 after couple more rounds. Mariners could be a "dark horse" with "lighter" schedule.


And now I think that 18-20 points (more than 20-22) could a play-off threshold.

Anyhow, By Christmas the bottom play-off picture should start to clear out. 


P.S. I never underestimated the Flyers - I just did not have the data to evaluate them properly and did not see them play. Tie with Wave 1 is a pretty good sample...

[2 Cups in LA]

Alfirst  I enjoy your responses.  "Homework well done"   Apparently the Flyers caught you off guard?   Once again the PWA division will come down to Kings 1, Wave 1 and Flyers for the division title and #1 seed in the playoffs.   The Gulls 1, Mariners, Heat, GR1 & GR2 will be the bottom feeders of playoff brackets with early exits.   The rest of the division should be playing down in PWBB?

[alfirst]

Thank you, and yes, I think that Tier-4 teams should clearly play PWBB - and that would make schedule in PWA "cleaner" - meaning that everyone would play everyone. Right now for 5-8 play-off teams schedule decides too much. But then - as you say if it's just for early exit?... On the other hand - what they should do?

[Gary Sargent]

[font=]Any unusual predictions for the weekend?  Seems as though our division tends to be the wild wild west....[/font]

[alfirst]

Not sure about predictions but I can point out some interesting (from standings points of view) match-ups:


Bears - Gulls 2


Wave 2 - Kings 2


Mariners - Goldrush 2

[2 Cups in LA]

Alfirst.  The valley & southbay teams will win your 3 pickem games.  I will probably find time to watch Kings 1 at TSC tomorrow?

[alfirst]

So out of those "marquee" match-ups we have a tie for Bears - Gulls 2, while Kings 2 continue to beat the pres-season "odds" winning now over Wave 2. Still match-ups ahead are tougher.
Goldrush 2 took a step down losing to Mariners - and with that Mariners with relatively light schedule almost guaranteed themselves a play-off spot.   


Now - the tournaments...