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Author Topic: The CAHA AA Flight system sucks again (2019 Bantam AA Edition)  (Read 101650 times)

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Re: The CAHA AA Flight system sucks again (2019 Bantam AA Edition)
« Reply #120 on: February 20, 2019, 10:43:06 AM »
Growing the game means get more kids playing hockey. Not creating teams at a higher level for kids that couldn’t make a existing team at that level. How come the CA kids in the USHL were able to make it from CA AAA but the kids couldn’t make CA AAA and left for prep still can’t make the USHL? 

lcadad

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Re: The CAHA AA Flight system sucks again (2019 Bantam AA Edition)
« Reply #121 on: February 20, 2019, 10:49:11 AM »
Growing the game means get more kids playing hockey. Not creating teams at a higher level for kids that couldn’t make a existing team at that level. How come the CA kids in the USHL were able to make it from CA AAA but the kids couldn’t make CA AAA and left for prep still can’t make the USHL?


I don't know, let's get in our time machine and go into the future so we can see what happens in the USHL and beyond when the generation of kids actually affected by these rules and some of the brilliant rules changes in the last 3 years come of age....

JackBender

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Re: The CAHA AA Flight system sucks again (2019 Bantam AA Edition)
« Reply #122 on: February 20, 2019, 10:55:29 AM »
Growing the game must happen on many fronts... and AAA is the crown jewel. Every kid who puts on a Jr Kings sweater sees the older boys in those purple sweaters... and they dream of putting one on of their own.  It's special.  AAA means something.  It is a goal. 


CAHA should be nurturing this goal.  Providing opportunity.  Growing the dream.  Make it a big, attainable thing.  Broadcast it.  As a result, more will play and pursue it... instead of being told at 13 that they don't have a shot. 


You're very cynical.  It's not a good trait.  11 kids from the 03AAA Jr Kings team were drafted to the WHL last year.  That's one team.  11 kids.  Drafted.  WHL.  Better than the USHL.  Not sure what you're talking about.  Lighten up.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2019, 10:57:41 AM by JackBender »
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Hamacher Checking Camp

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Re: The CAHA AA Flight system sucks again (2019 Bantam AA Edition)
« Reply #123 on: February 20, 2019, 11:00:33 AM »
Jack B-how many AAA applications has CAHA turned down?
Which specific kids have had their hockey development limited because there are only 3 AAA teams or because of the 2 flight system?
What is wrong with playing AA?

HCC-just curious: what do you mean "300 other additional commits"?
How many D1 programs are there: 50-60?
let's say 70 teams-25 players a team over 5 years -that's 350 D1 spaces a year total





I advise players and families on this stuff as a part of my 1on1 programs so this data and line of thinking is very well researched, very well thought out, discussed with coaches and professionals across the nation including players and coaches, and gleaned from pay hockey services and paid media/journalism. 
 
See the link below for the actual numbers and this is NCAA Div I only.  The data and line of thinking is different for CHL and NCAA Div III.


The "300 additional commits" is an estimate of those players that were not good enough to be found or at least not found before age 18.  In my previous statement, I said the top 5% or 75-100 players are found.  That is an estimated number that are clear front runners at age 15/16 and are invited to NTDP camp, USHL tenders, early DI verbal commits, drafted USHL Phase I (Futures) draft, USAH National Camp.  In my opinion, those players were "good enough to be found."   If there are approx 430+ incoming NCAA Div I Freshman each season (varies by injuries, transfers, early Pro signings, etc) and the "found" players number in the 100 range, then the estimated difference is 300 or 300+.  I respect there are multiple birthyear Freshman entries each fall and the numbers are not perfect because of that dynamic, but generally speaking, the data still holds.  Hope that math makes sense.


 There are another estimated 500-900 really good hockey players that have an uphill road and need to climb and scratch and claw their way.  In some ways it is a "coin flip" whether a player ends up in DI or DIII.   They have to get there by extraordinary measures and have things go their way.   Many go unfound and quit along the way.  Many go unfound and find other interests or don't want to wait and start college on time.  There are some that refuse to leave home for academic or girlfriend or family reasons so they also go unfound.  There are some that have been told playing AA is good enough and "if you are good enough, you will be found" and since NOBODY scouts AA other than pay-to-play Tier 3 hockey, they indeed are never found.  There are actually many different reasons.  But there will be an estimated 300 out of this group that do end up in NCAA Div I. 


I did a "where are they now" from the USHL Phase I (Futures) draft analysis On November 15, 2018 and is on my FB page for those interested.  Some interesting data there.




https://www.facebook.com/Hamacherhockey/photos/a.1178529588844119/2264934113536989/?type=3&theater




_
« Last Edit: February 20, 2019, 11:04:22 AM by Hamacher Checking Camp »

Hockey05

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Re: The CAHA AA Flight system sucks again (2019 Bantam AA Edition)
« Reply #124 on: February 20, 2019, 11:30:30 AM »
Much good info and stats.  I never knew scouts are paid to go watch.  Does that happen often
We want our kids to be provided the chance to play AAA hockey regardless of where they stand on the team top or bottom.  We shouldn't have to send them away for their love of the game.  Parents are doing that, not every parent thinks their kid is going places.  Why can't we be afforded the chance to watch and see how they develop?  Of course we all hope our kid will defy stats.  And yes, of course they are headed to beer leagues, but the games that matter are when they are kids.  No one comes to watch my beer league games. 
These hard working players deserve the chance to play and be seen at the highest of levels.  Anything less is a disservice to player and family.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2019, 11:57:09 AM by Hockey05 »

Knuckle Puck

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Re: The CAHA AA Flight system sucks again (2019 Bantam AA Edition)
« Reply #125 on: February 20, 2019, 11:42:28 AM »
How come the CA kids in the USHL were able to make it from CA AAA but the kids couldn’t make CA AAA and left for prep still can’t make the USHL?
Simple answer: the number of kids choosing to go the prep route really took off with the 2000 and later birth years, and most of them haven’t graduated yet. There are about a half dozen prep grad 2000s playing now in BCHL and NAHL; twice that number are still in school. I’m aware of nine 1999s who went East Coast prep (including girls); 4 are D1 commits, 2 are D3 commits, 1 still BCHL and 1 still NAHL. Good results.

trans4761

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Re: The CAHA AA Flight system sucks again (2019 Bantam AA Edition)
« Reply #126 on: February 21, 2019, 01:26:42 PM »
So now that the mostly meaningless regular season is over, the real season begins tomorrow.  Good luck to everyone making the trek. Dont expect many upsets, but I would say the team that come out with  best effort will move on.


JackBender

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Re: The CAHA AA Flight system sucks again (2019 Bantam AA Edition)
« Reply #127 on: February 22, 2019, 12:38:18 PM »
Hmmm If Kings 1 is now in the playdowns in Vacaville this weekend, but they have a scheduled SCAHA game tomorrow against the Gulls what happens to Kings1 if they don’t show up for their scheduled SCAHA game? Are they allowed to forfeit or reschedule or are they too being forced to send some kids back to play that game or their coach will be suspended?


It was actually HC suspended for a YEAR and the club BARRED from Tier hockey for a year.  Guess we'll see, won't we. My guess is that it'll be canceled and never spoken of again... kind of like the PWAA Ducks 2/Maple Leafs SCAHA game that was canceled (over Maple Leaf objection) so that Ducks 2 wouldn't have to play two games (which did NOT conflict) on the same day they were playing the Wave team.
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Strawman

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Re: The CAHA AA Flight system sucks again (2019 Bantam AA Edition)
« Reply #128 on: February 22, 2019, 01:07:12 PM »
Kings are above the law, didn't you know?

notTHATdad

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Re: The CAHA AA Flight system sucks again (2019 Bantam AA Edition)
« Reply #129 on: May 14, 2019, 08:08:58 AM »

This has been a really amusing thread to catch up on. Not sure what has been funnier, the Jr Sharks bashing, or the lack of understanding of the world of AAA.


First the Jr Sharks. True they are rarely as good as the Ducks, and struggle with the Kings. The AAA landscape looks like the following based on myhockeyrankings (which is not great, but it's the best we have.) You can break down the rankings into three parts, with 'grey areas' between them. Within these sections, on any given day, any team can beat any other. Playing 'up' a section is always a struggle. Playing 'down' a section, an easy game. This seems to be true at almost every AAA level:


At the top of the rankings you have about 15-20 teams that can be considered 'elite'.


From roughly positions 20 through 50 you have what most people would consider 'good' AAA teams.


From about 60 on, you have AAA teams that are struggling. 'Bad' teams. At the bottom you usually have 10-20 teams that shouldn't be in AAA.


The Ducks are almost always in the first section. The Kings are typically in that grey area between 1 and 2, and the Sharks are almost always in the second section. So yes, the sharks struggle with the kings and ducks.


There are many of reasons for that. I think competition for players does play a part in the Kings and Ducks improving their programs over time. There is a bigger pool to draw on. They Sharks typically do not have 'tournament' and 'import' players, but rely on local kids, something the kings and ducks are not as strict about. I think the ability to commute may play some role too, as kids from the north of the bay area basically cannot play for the Jr sharks (and the sharks have not adapted to that with practice time changes, etc.) Can the Sharks improve? Yes. They are not doing badly though, drafting more WHL players this year than either the Ducks or Kings, and sending four kids to the national camp.


Would competitive teams in the area help? Maybe. But only if there are enough kids at the AAA level available. There aren't.  GSE was approved to field an 04 AAA team last year. I'd argue that CAHA bent over backwards to make it happen too, approving it based on a sample roster that included mulitple '05 players (very rare at AAA beyond the Connor Bedard's of the world.) That's the only way they could make it work.


But they couldn't make it happen. GSE withdrew their application. I haven't spoken to parents about it directly, but I'm guessing that one of the reasons was that they looked at the small roster and realized they'd get their butts kicked. Some of those kids ended up playing for the Jr sharks. And as it turns out, the GSE team that was to form the core of it sort of ended up imploding this year.


We all want the game to grow. But half-assed attempts at building teams don't help anyone. The situation may well be different in Socal, where there are many more AA teams, but I wouldn't know.



« Last Edit: May 14, 2019, 08:17:50 AM by notTHATdad »

lcadad

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Re: The CAHA AA Flight system sucks again (2019 Bantam AA Edition)
« Reply #130 on: May 14, 2019, 10:13:00 AM »
Quote
We all want the game to grow. But half-assed attempts at building teams don't help anyone. The situation may well be different in Socal, where there are many more AA teams, but I wouldn't know.

Indeed a lot of the issues with CAHA seem related to the situation in Norcal, as well as the fact that CAHA's leadership is primarily people from Norcal.  The situation in Socal is certainly different than in Norcal, but this is not solely a criticism with the AAA system.  The complaint many people have is the heavy handed protectionist policies that limit and damage the opportunities and experience of individual families.

I don't think you see the contradictions in your own arguments.  On one hand you admit that the Sharks are a 2nd tier AAA program, but then go on to say they shouldn't be judged purely on the basis of wins/losses and competition with the other 2 AAA franchises.   Meanwhile teams that could also slot into the same category as the Sharks would be "half-assed attempts".   


notTHATdad

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Re: The CAHA AA Flight system sucks again (2019 Bantam AA Edition)
« Reply #131 on: May 14, 2019, 11:50:13 AM »

That's an 'interesting' reading of my comments. I would not describe the Jr Sharks as a 'second tier' AAA team because they aren't in the top %15 in the country. At that point you'd be saying the Dallas jr Stars are a tier II team, along with Omaha AAA, Fox motors, Chicago Young Americans, Phoenix Jr Coyotes... etc.  You might want to look at the rankings. The Ducks are exceptionally good. The Kings very good too. The Jr Sharks do just fine against most AAA teams (just look at the record).


As for 'teams slotting into the same category...' Please. GSE#2 was #24 in the Tier II rankings. And the proposed AAA roster had multiple 05's on it. My guess is with that roster they would have been crushed at AAA, and one or two injuries away from defaulting games - admittedly something we never will know for sure, as the club itself had the good sense to drop out. They were not forced out by any 'CAHA politics'. They were given a chance and could not manage it.


As I said, maybe that's not the case in Socal, given the larger number of AA teams, but up north, there simply isn't the AAA talent available.

Quote
We all want the game to grow. But half-assed attempts at building teams don't help anyone. The situation may well be different in Socal, where there are many more AA teams, but I wouldn't know.

Indeed a lot of the issues with CAHA seem related to the situation in Norcal, as well as the fact that CAHA's leadership is primarily people from Norcal.  The situation in Socal is certainly different than in Norcal, but this is not solely a criticism with the AAA system.  The complaint many people have is the heavy handed protectionist policies that limit and damage the opportunities and experience of individual families.

I don't think you see the contradictions in your own arguments.  On one hand you admit that the Sharks are a 2nd tier AAA program, but then go on to say they shouldn't be judged purely on the basis of wins/losses and competition with the other 2 AAA franchises.   Meanwhile teams that could also slot into the same category as the Sharks would be "half-assed attempts".

lcadad

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Re: The CAHA AA Flight system sucks again (2019 Bantam AA Edition)
« Reply #132 on: May 14, 2019, 01:28:34 PM »
I don't want you to misinterpret my comments, although I can see how they could be misread.  I was simply referring to the AAA teams that are not "Elite" per your classifications, as being 2nd tier AAA.  I did not mean that as a claim that the Sharks should be playing AA.

I understand that GSE decided not to pull the plug on an '04 team AAA.  It goes without saying that at each birth year there are varying levels of talent and competitiveness across the different clubs.   It sounds like GSE after careful consideration did what they determined was best for them given the available pool of talent, and this should be the case for most all teams, only that's not the way things work.

However, while we are at it, we have recent examples of AA Socal teams (Bears '03 & Saints '05)  who have played up into AAA tournaments and had a good deal of success, which suggests they could have played AAA the entire year and most likely slotted into the same general category as the Sharks.   The current rules just make things complicated and confusing for everyone involved, but across the entire state of California, there is ample evidence that there are enough players to have more AAA teams than there are now.  I won't retread the historical record on this, but it's already been documented that it's been that way in the past as well.  I find it fairly ridiculous that teams have to make the case for going AAA before they have even had tryouts or really have an idea of what they might be able to draw, and yet by the same token, have had to present evidence showing they'll be competitive.  The Kings, Ducks and Sharks have to show absolutely nothing, and I doubt seriously they would want to deal with the red tape other clubs are required to provide. 




« Last Edit: May 14, 2019, 01:29:23 PM by lcadad »

notTHATdad

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Re: The CAHA AA Flight system sucks again (2019 Bantam AA Edition)
« Reply #133 on: May 14, 2019, 05:19:35 PM »



Like I said, I know little about SoCal :-) Apart from the fact that you seem to be gaining rinks and we seem to be losing them (largely due to real-estate prices.)


I do wonder if anyone has done a survey around the country to see how many AA teams tend to coexist for each AAA team. My impression is that for the most part AAA teams are pretty scarce. I'm always amazed at how many AAA teams we play that have the exact same travel problems (with smaller distances) that we do - states with only 1 or 2 AAA teams are not that uncommon - it just happens that the next state is usually closer!


If you use myhockeyrankings as a proxy, it looks like there is on average a AAA team for every 10 AA teams. 1199 AA teams ranked nation wide, versus 116 AAA teams.


So maybe we aren't that far off with 3 AAA teams for 18 or so AA teams.

I don't want you to misinterpret my comments, although I can see how they could be misread.  I was simply referring to the AAA teams that are not "Elite" per your classifications, as being 2nd tier AAA.  I did not mean that as a claim that the Sharks should be playing AA.

I understand that GSE decided not to pull the plug on an '04 team AAA.  It goes without saying that at each birth year there are varying levels of talent and competitiveness across the different clubs.   It sounds like GSE after careful consideration did what they determined was best for them given the available pool of talent, and this should be the case for most all teams, only that's not the way things work.

However, while we are at it, we have recent examples of AA Socal teams (Bears '03 & Saints '05)  who have played up into AAA tournaments and had a good deal of success, which suggests they could have played AAA the entire year and most likely slotted into the same general category as the Sharks.   The current rules just make things complicated and confusing for everyone involved, but across the entire state of California, there is ample evidence that there are enough players to have more AAA teams than there are now.  I won't retread the historical record on this, but it's already been documented that it's been that way in the past as well.  I find it fairly ridiculous that teams have to make the case for going AAA before they have even had tryouts or really have an idea of what they might be able to draw, and yet by the same token, have had to present evidence showing they'll be competitive.  The Kings, Ducks and Sharks have to show absolutely nothing, and I doubt seriously they would want to deal with the red tape other clubs are required to provide.

disergio

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Re: The CAHA AA Flight system sucks again (2019 Bantam AA Edition)
« Reply #134 on: May 20, 2021, 07:58:57 PM »
Is it one AA flight for all ages next season?