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Author Topic: PW AA 2019-2020  (Read 242461 times)

ChainGun105

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Re: PW AA 2019-2020
« Reply #510 on: March 13, 2020, 11:38:12 PM »
How do folks think the 19-20 season will ultimately end?


C) No 2020 Tier 2 12U AA Champion

From the CAHA home page’s 3/13/20 6:28 PM Update: “Not contested”

I like it, I hope they stay with that. 


Yet the number one team, in this case the Ducks, went wire to wire.  It is not even close by all metrics.  Since no one else has a claim (its not like GSE, Kings, or ID was tied in points, wins, or differential) CAHA should award the championship to the top team.  Leaving the championship as "uncontested" just invalidates their entire season and every game played under the CAHA banner. 


The best metrics show JD in 2nd place....


Playoffs matter, all 8 playoff teams played in playdowns. 
3 pts for a regulation win
2 pts for OT win
1 pt for OT loss
0 pts for regulation loss


With the double elimination format, pure points earned fails, as a team that plays 3 games may have more potential points than a 2-0 team.  Taking average points earned per game gives you a clean metric of who did the best in post season play.
- the higher the seed, the lower seeded the opponents you had to face; that is where regular season consideration ends in post-season.


1) GSE-1: earned 3pts/game
   - 6 pts for 2 regulation wins, divided by 2 games
   - Average opponent seed = 4th
   - Played higher seeds than JD, yet was only team to max pts/game


2) JrDucks: earned 2.5 pts/g
   - 5 pts for 1 OT win, 1 reg win, divided by 2 games
   - Average opponent seed = 6th
   - Needing OT to beat 8th seed, costly stumble out of the gate


3) IceDogs1: earned 2 pts/g
   - 6 pts for 2 reg wins, w/1 reg loss, divided by 3 games


4) JrKings1: earned 1.67 pts/g
   - 5 pts for 1 OT win, 1 reg win, w/1 reg loss, divided by 3 games


“Clearly” post-season metrics are the best metrics for artificially determining the championship; all post-season metrics clearly show GSE-1 was the best post-season team in 12U AA in 2020...


Even with the fact that my kid wore #33 in net for GSE-1, I think the best thing CAHA could do is leave the title vacant, second best thing being a 4-way co-championship.


« Last Edit: March 13, 2020, 11:41:31 PM by ChainGun105 »

Stark

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Re: PW AA 2019-2020
« Reply #511 on: March 14, 2020, 01:03:10 AM »
Remaining CAHA State Events Status Mar 13, 2020  9:59 PM March 13, 2020

 To: All CAHA Members

 Re: Remaining 2019-2020 CAHA State Events Cancellation

 Dear Participant Members,

 Effective immediately by unanimous vote, CAHA has cancelled all remaining CAHA Post Season events. This includes CAHA Select Camp scheduled for March 20-22, 2020, in Lakewood, and Youth A/BB/B and High School 1B/2B State Championships scheduled for March 27-29, 2020 in San Jose.

 This decision was made after careful deliberation and in the primary interest of protecting the health and safety of our member clubs, spectators, and most importantly, our athletes.

 While we understand this decision is disappointing, we strongly believe that the opportunity to compete in these events does not outweigh our obligation to place the health and safety of our membership above all else. The impact of COVID-19 has created many unexpected challenges as our season draws to an end, and we want to thank everyone involved for their flexibility, patience, and commitment in providing our athletes a great experience despite this unique situation.

 Lastly, we want to recognize the hard work and commitment our athletes/teams have made to reach their respective League Playoffs/Championships that would have qualified them to advance to CAHA State Championships, and salute them for the accomplishment.

 Sincerely,

 Thomas Hancock
President

Golden Knight

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Re: PW AA 2019-2020
« Reply #512 on: March 14, 2020, 10:03:22 AM »
How do folks think the 19-20 season will ultimately end?


C) No 2020 Tier 2 12U AA Champion

From the CAHA home page’s 3/13/20 6:28 PM Update: “Not contested”

I like it, I hope they stay with that. 


Yet the number one team, in this case the Ducks, went wire to wire.  It is not even close by all metrics.  Since no one else has a claim (its not like GSE, Kings, or ID was tied in points, wins, or differential) CAHA should award the championship to the top team.  Leaving the championship as "uncontested" just invalidates their entire season and every game played under the CAHA banner. 


The best metrics show JD in 2nd place....


Playoffs matter, all 8 playoff teams played in playdowns. 
3 pts for a regulation win
2 pts for OT win
1 pt for OT loss
0 pts for regulation loss


With the double elimination format, pure points earned fails, as a team that plays 3 games may have more potential points than a 2-0 team.  Taking average points earned per game gives you a clean metric of who did the best in post season play.
- the higher the seed, the lower seeded the opponents you had to face; that is where regular season consideration ends in post-season.


1) GSE-1: earned 3pts/game
   - 6 pts for 2 regulation wins, divided by 2 games
   - Average opponent seed = 4th
   - Played higher seeds than JD, yet was only team to max pts/game


2) JrDucks: earned 2.5 pts/g
   - 5 pts for 1 OT win, 1 reg win, divided by 2 games
   - Average opponent seed = 6th
   - Needing OT to beat 8th seed, costly stumble out of the gate


3) IceDogs1: earned 2 pts/g
   - 6 pts for 2 reg wins, w/1 reg loss, divided by 3 games


4) JrKings1: earned 1.67 pts/g
   - 5 pts for 1 OT win, 1 reg win, w/1 reg loss, divided by 3 games


“Clearly” post-season metrics are the best metrics for artificially determining the championship; all post-season metrics clearly show GSE-1 was the best post-season team in 12U AA in 2020...


Even with the fact that my kid wore #33 in net for GSE-1, I think the best thing CAHA could do is leave the title vacant, second best thing being a 4-way co-championship.


You cant skew the results by using different metrics than what have been used all season.  Wins-losses-draws-goal differential.   By those standards, no one is close to the Ducks whom have no losses and one draw.  By way of comparison,  GSE has three losses.


I do agree with one thing though.  These two teams should play.  I know people on both sides and could probably facilitate this.  In fact, one of my Ducks friends is willing to buy the ice.  Thoughts?

trans4761

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Re: PW AA 2019-2020
« Reply #513 on: March 14, 2020, 11:02:25 AM »
How do folks think the 19-20 season will ultimately end?


C) No 2020 Tier 2 12U AA Champion

From the CAHA home page’s 3/13/20 6:28 PM Update: “Not contested”

I like it, I hope they stay with that. 


Yet the number one team, in this case the Ducks, went wire to wire.  It is not even close by all metrics.  Since no one else has a claim (its not like GSE, Kings, or ID was tied in points, wins, or differential) CAHA should award the championship to the top team.  Leaving the championship as "uncontested" just invalidates their entire season and every game played under the CAHA banner. 


The best metrics show JD in 2nd place....


Playoffs matter, all 8 playoff teams played in playdowns. 
3 pts for a regulation win
2 pts for OT win
1 pt for OT loss
0 pts for regulation loss


With the double elimination format, pure points earned fails, as a team that plays 3 games may have more potential points than a 2-0 team.  Taking average points earned per game gives you a clean metric of who did the best in post season play.
- the higher the seed, the lower seeded the opponents you had to face; that is where regular season consideration ends in post-season.


1) GSE-1: earned 3pts/game
   - 6 pts for 2 regulation wins, divided by 2 games
   - Average opponent seed = 4th
   - Played higher seeds than JD, yet was only team to max pts/game


2) JrDucks: earned 2.5 pts/g
   - 5 pts for 1 OT win, 1 reg win, divided by 2 games
   - Average opponent seed = 6th
   - Needing OT to beat 8th seed, costly stumble out of the gate


3) IceDogs1: earned 2 pts/g
   - 6 pts for 2 reg wins, w/1 reg loss, divided by 3 games


4) JrKings1: earned 1.67 pts/g
   - 5 pts for 1 OT win, 1 reg win, w/1 reg loss, divided by 3 games


“Clearly” post-season metrics are the best metrics for artificially determining the championship; all post-season metrics clearly show GSE-1 was the best post-season team in 12U AA in 2020...


Even with the fact that my kid wore #33 in net for GSE-1, I think the best thing CAHA could do is leave the title vacant, second best thing being a 4-way co-championship.


You cant skew the results by using different metrics than what have been used all season.  Wins-losses-draws-goal differential.   By those standards, no one is close to the Ducks whom have no losses and one draw.  By way of comparison,  GSE has three losses.


I do agree with one thing though.  These two teams should play.  I know people on both sides and could probably facilitate this.  In fact, one of my Ducks friends is willing to buy the ice.  Thoughts?
Get over it.


Just like the Sopranos, its over....get a new show !

ChainGun105

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Re: PW AA 2019-2020
« Reply #514 on: March 14, 2020, 01:51:10 PM »
GK, my thoughts,

The regular season and the padded/bogus regular season stats are immaterial for post-season discussion.  On top of that, different coaches approach the regular season differently; knowing that trophies are not handed out for regular season games. 

We had a postseason where all playoff teams played; the jrDucks, by all post season metrics, were 2nd fiddle. 

As for the regular season, any argument based on those metrics disintegrates in a gentle breeze.   

Exhibit A) Some coaches allow regular season scores to be run up, leading to padding stats on weaker teams. GSE-1 did not score more than 8 goals in a game because the coach directed players to stop scoring; more than one 3rd period was spent practicing scissor passes in the offensive zone.  Kudos to him, teaching these 11-13 year olds that respecting the game and respecting the opponent does not involve running up 15-0 scores in a regular season game against an overwhelmed opponent.
- Now, if CAHA wants re-write their rules to say regular season goals for (GF) are more than just a tiebreaker for playoff seeding - let them do it and everyone will operate with the same objectives.  Trying to point to goals for, in the absence of those ground rules, is actually an indictment of that team/club and not an argument for post-season results.

Exhibit B) Some teams, whether by ignorance, incompetence or deceit; rendered goalie metrics for their team bogus...  In particular, the JrDucks yielded 28 goals as a team...  but if you add up goals against for JD#31 (1 ga) and JD#32 (8 ga) you get 9 goals yielded.  Considering the JrDucks record, I am not buying that there were 19 empty net goals against the JrDucks.  The fact is that the JrDucks under-reported goals against their goalies by 65% (28 v 9)... (IceDogs1 underreported 75%; 34 v 9.)
- so 1, 2, 3, & 5 in the goalie metrics are bogus...
- Now GSE-1 gave up 22 goals as a team: #33=8 ga & #77=14 ga.  Shocking how they managed to be 100% accurate in their reporting... so, the legitimate best goalie in CAHA 12U AA looks to be the kid CAHA has erroneously in 4th...
- Heck, the JrDuck kid listed in 1st w/ 1 goal yielded all season gave up 7 In the final game alone.

Exhibit C) GSE-1 ran 5on5 in the regular season with all kids on equal shifts; save a little bench time to reflect on knuckle-headed/pre-teen plays.  So the 15th best skater had a chance to develop and play with the top players.  While getting a ticket to the post-season is important for all, some coaches use the regular season games to, wait for it, develop the kids on the back half of the roster to make them better.  Other teams run the same top 2-3 players for extended shifts while the back 5 might be lucky to see 10 minutes of ice.  The latter is not what 12U hockey should be about; so again - that second approach is an indictment of the team/club, not an argument for post-season titles.

Clearly, regular season CAHA metrics are not valid as listed and any argument for post-season placement that attempts to use them is invalid from the word Go.

So, we find ourselves back to actual post-season accomplishments.

1) GSE-1
2) JrDucks
3) IceDogs1
4) JrKings1

But again, no champion or a 4 way co-champion was the way to go, in my mind.

All that said, I am happy to indulge the what ifs and regular season trends:

GSE-1 had only been together as a team for 7 weeks of practice, when they played the JrDucks to a 1-2 result in October’s first CAHA weekend.  17 kids that were coming from 6 different clubs and 7 different teams (7+4+2+1+1+1+1).  A post-season rematch with the JrDucks, where the GSE-1 kids have the benefit of more than seven weeks with a new coach, learning a new system, and playing with new teammates - yeah; that weighs very, very, very heavily in the favor of GSE-1.  (That GSE-1 held the Ducks close at 1-2, despite the above, kind of reflects negatively on the JrDucks desired mythos.)

GSE-1 ended the CAHA regular season on a 7 game win streak.  In that span, they registered the only 2 shutouts to be posted against a team to make the post-season: 4-0 over the JrFlyers and 5-0 over GR2.  (The last CAHA goal yielded by GSE-1’s #33 net minder was half way though the second period of an eventual 2-2 tie with IceDogs1, on Nov 8, 2019.)

GSE-1’s last non-win (of any kind) was to the JrKings1 team at the start of January, a 2-5 loss.
- worth noting, GSE-1’s 2nd goalie was in net (‘08 minor). Conscious decision by the coaching staff to let her face a top-tier team...  regular season game, team was already a lock for post-season; great opportunity to get next year’s #1 some heavy work.  Kudos to the coaches for thinking long term and giving her the game.
- GSE-1 (3rd seed) beat the JrKings1 (2nd seed) in the post-season 4-2 (in regulation) with their #1 goalie in net.  With #33 in net, GSE-1 kept all 3 other Final Four playoff opponents to just 2 goals in their previous match ups.  GSE-1 legitimately ended the regular season as Clearly the best defense in CAHA with only 22 CAHA goals yielded all season.  #2 JrDucks: 28.  #3 IceDogs1: 34.

So GSE-1 had stout defense from the beginning.  The regular season allowed the skaters a chance to learn a new coach, a new system and new teammates. 

Add to the above, JrDucks yield 7 goals in their last regular season game...  Next, the JrDucks need over-time to beat 8th seed in the playoffs. 

Clearly, JrDucks were trending down, while GSE-1 has been trending up.  So yeah, *all* signs pointed to GSE-1 coming out on top in a head to match up.

We will never know...  The season was cancelled, those two teams will not be the same next year, and #33 may well be playing in SoCal next year...
- Beebe has him rostered 07AAA Chi-town tourney next month
- Kabanets for 07AAA Sweden/Belarus tourney back half of April
- Khomchenko for 07AAA St Petersburg tourney in Aug

Looking forward to meeting more families from SoCal on those trips.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2020, 02:31:31 PM by ChainGun105 »

ohnonotagain

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Re: PW AA 2019-2020
« Reply #515 on: March 14, 2020, 07:12:58 PM »
Simply amazed at the calories being spent to figure out "who should be named champion."  So glad hockey parents have their priorities straight.

ChainGun105

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Re: PW AA 2019-2020
« Reply #516 on: March 14, 2020, 08:01:46 PM »
Lol - first time in 5 months the weekend is has nothing in the ToDo column, school  is out for 3 weeks, the family room has stacks of supplies, and no where to go.

alfirst

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Re: PW AA 2019-2020
« Reply #517 on: March 14, 2020, 11:54:29 PM »
GSE parent - aside of the fact that on this forum we normally do not mention our kids and do not praise them - you have all good and valid points there imo.
Do Ducks deserve be 1st seed - yes. Do they deserve uncontested crown - no
Your team played other 3 teams only once I believe- can't really base championship on that. And your team is a very solid squad, not dependent on 1 player like your neighbor ' one. Really structured play and defences, hence fewer goals allowed. No apparent weak spots


Also - I would not say Ducks depend on 1 line or any core players too heavily; that is definitely the case with Kings and ID1 though. The latter often play 2 lines even in not so important games.


On the other hand - Ducks, Kings and ID1 played Thanksgiving tournament where Kings did not make top 4 teams out of 6 (the others were - Heat, Bears and Ducks 08 AAA), while Ducks lost to ID1 twice without scoring a goal. ID1 won that tourney. So it is not like Ducks are untouchable or have a clean record.


Yet, Ducks did not lose any points in Scaha and had 1 tie in CAHA. One might say - tournament is a one weekend - but so are CAHA weekends and so is CAHA final. And most top 6 teams knew there are going to make playdowns anyway - to your point on rolling lines and goal differential


I'd say we missed a potentially very good hockey weekend - but so be it. CAHA probably could not move quicker as virus did a better job cancelling major sports mid week.


Wish all the players and parents and all relatives stay healthy and get through that.






ChainGun105

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Re: PW AA 2019-2020
« Reply #518 on: March 15, 2020, 10:06:10 AM »
Well said alfirst.

2 Cups in LA

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Re: PW AA 2019-2020
« Reply #519 on: March 15, 2020, 01:41:42 PM »
I’m going to miss all the “jib jab” on this site.  Everyone stay healthy and I wish all the little Gretzky’s the very best in 20/21!

5lap5hot

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Re: PW AA 2019-2020
« Reply #520 on: March 16, 2020, 08:57:08 AM »
Santa Barbara rink is still open.  No that all of the kids have time on their hands I think GSE and JRD need to get this done.  Video only so we can have our social distancing.  I'm sure there is a betting website that needs to find some sport to bet on....


$50 on GSE

trans4761

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Re: PW AA 2019-2020
« Reply #521 on: March 16, 2020, 09:25:14 AM »
GK, my thoughts,

The regular season and the padded/bogus regular season stats are immaterial for post-season discussion.  On top of that, different coaches approach the regular season differently; knowing that trophies are not handed out for regular season games. 

We had a postseason where all playoff teams played; the jrDucks, by all post season metrics, were 2nd fiddle. 

As for the regular season, any argument based on those metrics disintegrates in a gentle breeze.   

Exhibit A) Some coaches allow regular season scores to be run up, leading to padding stats on weaker teams. GSE-1 did not score more than 8 goals in a game because the coach directed players to stop scoring; more than one 3rd period was spent practicing scissor passes in the offensive zone.  Kudos to him, teaching these 11-13 year olds that respecting the game and respecting the opponent does not involve running up 15-0 scores in a regular season game against an overwhelmed opponent.
- Now, if CAHA wants re-write their rules to say regular season goals for (GF) are more than just a tiebreaker for playoff seeding - let them do it and everyone will operate with the same objectives.  Trying to point to goals for, in the absence of those ground rules, is actually an indictment of that team/club and not an argument for post-season results.

Exhibit B) Some teams, whether by ignorance, incompetence or deceit; rendered goalie metrics for their team bogus...  In particular, the JrDucks yielded 28 goals as a team...  but if you add up goals against for JD#31 (1 ga) and JD#32 (8 ga) you get 9 goals yielded.  Considering the JrDucks record, I am not buying that there were 19 empty net goals against the JrDucks.  The fact is that the JrDucks under-reported goals against their goalies by 65% (28 v 9)... (IceDogs1 underreported 75%; 34 v 9.)
- so 1, 2, 3, & 5 in the goalie metrics are bogus...
- Now GSE-1 gave up 22 goals as a team: #33=8 ga & #77=14 ga.  Shocking how they managed to be 100% accurate in their reporting... so, the legitimate best goalie in CAHA 12U AA looks to be the kid CAHA has erroneously in 4th...
- Heck, the JrDuck kid listed in 1st w/ 1 goal yielded all season gave up 7 In the final game alone.

Exhibit C) GSE-1 ran 5on5 in the regular season with all kids on equal shifts; save a little bench time to reflect on knuckle-headed/pre-teen plays.  So the 15th best skater had a chance to develop and play with the top players.  While getting a ticket to the post-season is important for all, some coaches use the regular season games to, wait for it, develop the kids on the back half of the roster to make them better.  Other teams run the same top 2-3 players for extended shifts while the back 5 might be lucky to see 10 minutes of ice.  The latter is not what 12U hockey should be about; so again - that second approach is an indictment of the team/club, not an argument for post-season titles.

Clearly, regular season CAHA metrics are not valid as listed and any argument for post-season placement that attempts to use them is invalid from the word Go.

So, we find ourselves back to actual post-season accomplishments.

1) GSE-1
2) JrDucks
3) IceDogs1
4) JrKings1

But again, no champion or a 4 way co-champion was the way to go, in my mind.

All that said, I am happy to indulge the what ifs and regular season trends:

GSE-1 had only been together as a team for 7 weeks of practice, when they played the JrDucks to a 1-2 result in October’s first CAHA weekend.  17 kids that were coming from 6 different clubs and 7 different teams (7+4+2+1+1+1+1).  A post-season rematch with the JrDucks, where the GSE-1 kids have the benefit of more than seven weeks with a new coach, learning a new system, and playing with new teammates - yeah; that weighs very, very, very heavily in the favor of GSE-1.  (That GSE-1 held the Ducks close at 1-2, despite the above, kind of reflects negatively on the JrDucks desired mythos.)

GSE-1 ended the CAHA regular season on a 7 game win streak.  In that span, they registered the only 2 shutouts to be posted against a team to make the post-season: 4-0 over the JrFlyers and 5-0 over GR2.  (The last CAHA goal yielded by GSE-1’s #33 net minder was half way though the second period of an eventual 2-2 tie with IceDogs1, on Nov 8, 2019.)

GSE-1’s last non-win (of any kind) was to the JrKings1 team at the start of January, a 2-5 loss.
- worth noting, GSE-1’s 2nd goalie was in net (‘08 minor). Conscious decision by the coaching staff to let her face a top-tier team...  regular season game, team was already a lock for post-season; great opportunity to get next year’s #1 some heavy work.  Kudos to the coaches for thinking long term and giving her the game.
- GSE-1 (3rd seed) beat the JrKings1 (2nd seed) in the post-season 4-2 (in regulation) with their #1 goalie in net.  With #33 in net, GSE-1 kept all 3 other Final Four playoff opponents to just 2 goals in their previous match ups.  GSE-1 legitimately ended the regular season as Clearly the best defense in CAHA with only 22 CAHA goals yielded all season.  #2 JrDucks: 28.  #3 IceDogs1: 34.

So GSE-1 had stout defense from the beginning.  The regular season allowed the skaters a chance to learn a new coach, a new system and new teammates. 

Add to the above, JrDucks yield 7 goals in their last regular season game...  Next, the JrDucks need over-time to beat 8th seed in the playoffs. 

Clearly, JrDucks were trending down, while GSE-1 has been trending up.  So yeah, *all* signs pointed to GSE-1 coming out on top in a head to match up.

We will never know...  The season was cancelled, those two teams will not be the same next year, and #33 may well be playing in SoCal next year...
- Beebe has him rostered 07AAA Chi-town tourney next month
- Kabanets for 07AAA Sweden/Belarus tourney back half of April
- Khomchenko for 07AAA St Petersburg tourney in Aug

Looking forward to meeting more families from SoCal on those trips.
HOLY SHIT !!


Fell asleep reading this manifesto.


Must be sequestered at home already


Icedad would be proud of this rant !

fistocuffs

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Re: PW AA 2019-2020
« Reply #522 on: March 16, 2020, 11:59:25 AM »
Santa Barbara rink is still open.  No that all of the kids have time on their hands I think GSE and JRD need to get this done.  Video only so we can have our social distancing.  I'm sure there is a betting website that needs to find some sport to bet on....


$50 on GSE


Are you f'in crazy? 

lcadad

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Re: PW AA 2019-2020
« Reply #523 on: March 16, 2020, 02:40:16 PM »
Icedad would be proud of this rant !


I've seen better.

5lap5hot

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Re: PW AA 2019-2020
« Reply #524 on: March 17, 2020, 08:36:42 AM »
Santa Barbara rink is still open.  No that all of the kids have time on their hands I think GSE and JRD need to get this done.  Video only so we can have our social distancing.  I'm sure there is a betting website that needs to find some sport to bet on....


$50 on GSE



Are you f'in crazy?


Dude relax.  Of course this isn't going to happen.  Enjoy your time in isolation like the rest of us and enjoy writing on a board that means nothing.