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Author Topic: Lots and lots of AAA teams next year  (Read 15961 times)

notTHATdad

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Re: Lots and lots of AAA teams next year
« Reply #30 on: October 11, 2021, 06:38:04 PM »
That happens with every good 16AAA team going 18's. By my count, 4 Jr Ducks 16AAA's left for Jr clubs. 2 Jr Sharks left. And they are the best players on the teams typically. Not sure about the Kings or Reign from last year (as neither were competitive, in the case of the Kings from the previous years nonsense, and in the case of the Reign because they were a AA caliber team, so I don't know who would end up in Jr's. But I could be wrong).


But it is universal. It's not a CA thing. Case in point, the Colorado Thunderbirds 18AAA's. Usually top 15 or better at 16AAA, but this year at 18's #86, because their top players are off playing jr.


There is an exodus every year of top players from 16's from good clubs.


That doesn't explain an entire state plummeting to the bottom of the rankings though. What does explain it is too many teams with diluted talent. And if you want to progress from 16's and 18's to Jr, as most of these kids at AAA do, you want visibility. And nobody watches a 90+ ranked team. Those scouts are off at the same tournaments watching the #25 ranked team.


I agree with many above that SoCal can probably use another AAA team to serve the south. But going from 2 to 5 is doing nothing but hurting kids. Particularly at 18's. An over reaction that makes CA hockey look horrible.




Knuckle Puck

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Re: Lots and lots of AAA teams next year
« Reply #31 on: October 11, 2021, 09:01:37 PM »
18aaa hasn't been good in cal for 4-5 seasons now, is not a serious vehicle for "exposure" and i thought everyone knew this. the kids seeking exposure leave. most of today's caha 18aaa are career aa-level kids who are playing out their last hockey dream before retiring and going to college -- let them have their fun, i'm fine with that. hope you didn't spend $$$ on this expecting something different.

notTHATdad

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Re: Lots and lots of AAA teams next year
« Reply #32 on: October 12, 2021, 09:17:05 AM »



That is CERTAINLY what having 6 AAA teams in California will guarantee. Glorified AA. You are seeing it this year. And the same thing will happen with 16's if AAA is allowed to expand with no control.


The national numbers are clear. Roughly the same number of kids go to Jr's from 18's as 16's. Most clubs don't want to look at 16's beyond those that they have identified early - too young, too small, too risky. It's common to go to USHL main camps and watch every 16 (except those drafted by the club) get summarily cut in the first round, leaving a dozen or more 18's. I've watched it happen. Turning 18AAA into AA cuts opportunities for kids.


You can give up on CA hockey, or you can try to set the conditions to make it better. This is the wrong direction.


Knuckle Puck

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Re: Lots and lots of AAA teams next year
« Reply #33 on: October 18, 2021, 07:22:27 PM »
gonna have to disagree with your premise. most of the top kids at 18 already assembled at jd. how many kids on reign, wave, jk and saints could supplant a kid on the jd roster and actually would have interest in going to jd? imo, not enough to make jd a scouts-must-see nat'l level competitor. if you want "exposure" for your kid, he has to go back east. caha tried consolidating the midget divisions down to build up the quality of the jk/jd squads - the experiment clearly didn't work.

trans4761

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Re: Lots and lots of AAA teams next year
« Reply #34 on: October 19, 2021, 10:45:37 AM »
gonna have to disagree with your premise. most of the top kids at 18 already assembled at jd. how many kids on reign, wave, jk and saints could supplant a kid on the jd roster and actually would have interest in going to jd? imo, not enough to make jd a scouts-must-see nat'l level competitor. if you want "exposure" for your kid, he has to go back east. caha tried consolidating the midget divisions down to build up the quality of the jk/jd squads - the experiment clearly didn't work.
That may be true for the first line of players in being unseeded by other kids in So Cal. After that, i think it it depends if parents are willing to pay an additional $30k per year to go to OL.

fistocuffs

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Re: Lots and lots of AAA teams next year
« Reply #35 on: October 19, 2021, 05:00:19 PM »
"If you build it, they will come..."  One of the best movies, but most misused concepts.  Detroit is not the place to "Become a Movie Star", just as much as LA is not the place to make it to the NHL. Yes there are exceptions, but overall - people go to where the concentration of talent and opportunity exists.   No amount of AA/AAA teams (or lack of teams) is going to move this needle.  Not every state can be a "hotbed" of hockey.  It is what it is here.  If you are not plugged into the powerhouse programs out East by Bantam Age.. well... its going to be central casting for you.  So get used to being "Third Guy In Line" in the next Taco Bell Commercial.


Just some humor to kill a long day here









notTHATdad

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Re: Lots and lots of AAA teams next year
« Reply #36 on: October 20, 2021, 09:54:45 AM »



Another week or two of rankings, and CA teams continue to plummet down the rankings. Now with the 16's too.


Remember the following comment from above?
"You are an absolute fool if you do not think there is enough talent in CA to fill all the AAA teams."


LOL.


For context, remember that CA teams have rarely placed below the 70's in the past, and are more typically #50 and above (top half of the rankings).


With about 110 teams reporting...


At 18's, the Ducks have improved slightly to #57, but only by beating other CA teams - nothing else since the last rankings. JK #97, Wave #98, Saints #103, Reign #107.


At 16's, Anaheim is doing fine at #21, but historically a 20's would not be seen as super successful for that org. Reign #77, Ice Dogs #81, JK #90


These are all bad, diluted teams. Literally some of the worst AAA teams in the nation.  Having 5 AAA teams for 13AA teams (at 18's) and  5 AAA teams for 18 AA teams (at 16') guarantees that way too many AA players will be trying to play AAA.


A couple of years of this and you will see the "exodus" accelerate. Because NOBODY that wants to do anything with hockey going forward wants to be on a #80+ ranked team.




Knuckle Puck

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Re: Lots and lots of AAA teams next year
« Reply #37 on: October 20, 2021, 05:22:56 PM »
many people don't buy what the jd and jk sell; when caha eliminated other options (gulls, titans, wave, wildcats), those people left.

history -- until the middle of the last decade, only a handful of kids would leave the state before major midget. the "exodus" started with the 2001s; three dozen of them left before they turned 16 y.o., at precisely the same time that caha (rather than the market) started deciding which clubs were worthy of aaa. that number doubled by the 2003 birth year. leaving socal now has become the rule, not the exception, for players striving for next level.

if the clubs were allowed to develop their aaa programs/kids over a multi-year span, without fear that caha will come and kill them off after one bad year, more kids will stay and the circuit will build back up. give kids a good reason to stay other than coercion.

my opinion. thanks.
« Last Edit: October 21, 2021, 08:57:22 AM by Knuckle Puck »

fistocuffs

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Re: Lots and lots of AAA teams next year
« Reply #38 on: October 21, 2021, 08:04:41 AM »
Knuckles.  I agree with that viewpoint.   Once the Bigger programs decided they wanted to jump into AAA - it seemed to get to be pretty mediocre.  Back in the early Mid 2000's, I believe the Wave was the powerhouse.  Then LA Hockey Club/Selects, then LA Jr Kings kinda absorbed LAHC.   Then it has become the bridge to nowhere these days.  If a club can get a small group of coaches with a great birth year of players, and manage to keep them together for 4-6 years - you will have a very good team. 




WTF

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Re: Lots and lots of AAA teams next year
« Reply #39 on: October 21, 2021, 09:25:56 AM »
There are outside influences also exerting pressure on these kids to leave the state.  For one USA Hockey, USHL, NAHL, and other higher level leagues are promoting the education path vs the Canadian Major Junior path.  Along this path way they promote the prep school route heavily to prepare the players for college when they are 20.  The prep schools are providing financial aid to these families so the total cost comes out to an amount equal to or less than the AAA cost in socal with significantly less travel.  When constantly hearing this noise it is almost impossible for the top kids to not leave.

notTHATdad

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Re: Lots and lots of AAA teams next year
« Reply #40 on: October 21, 2021, 02:39:04 PM »
Look at the rosters of the prep schools - they are mostly available online.


They are NOT loaded up with CA players. They are from all over. There is nothing CA specific about kids leaving AAA to go to prep, or NA3HL, NCDC, etc. It happens everywhere. And it has increased enormously over the last 15 years as the 'hockey academies' have entered the game. It's a huge problem up north. Kids literally trying to succeed at high school doing classes in the back room of a rink. Betting it all on a 'hockey career' at 15. Idiots.


FWIW, I hear this 'exodus' story all the time. One of my kids is an 01 and I didn't see it happen in NorCal, so maybe it was SoCal specific. What usually happens when you see a bulge like that though, is some small number of coaches leaves for somewhere else, and people follow.


I don't care whether it's the Kings, or Ducks, or Sharks running AAA - selection of clubs that is a different issue. And there is probably a space for a team closer to SD. But there just can't be too many, and that's what we have all of a sudden.


The Tri-Valley 18AA team is now ranked higher than every AAA team in CA except for the Ducks and the Sharks (who aren't ranked yet).  How is that good for anyone?


fistocuffs

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Re: Lots and lots of AAA teams next year
« Reply #41 on: October 22, 2021, 10:34:37 AM »
I think we are part of a Laffer Curve experiment at the moment. :)

lcadad

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Re: Lots and lots of AAA teams next year
« Reply #42 on: October 22, 2021, 04:54:56 PM »
It's ridiculous to attack the loosening of AAA restrictions because it didn't immediately repair a situation that took years to create.  And to be accurate for a moment, there aren't lots of AAA teams.

11u: 3
12u: 3
13u: 3
14u: 4
15o: 6
16u: 5
18u: 5

When there were only 3 California AAA teams, lots of kids left the state to play elsewhere.  Take the top 5-6 players from just about any team, and have them leave year over year, starting around age 12, and tell me that there won't be a big impact to that team's competitive performance.

Looking at the rankings at this point in the season, is a pretty poor way to judge anything, but unless you are a parent with a kid on a particular team, who gives a crap what the team's national ranking is? These teams play schedules based on the leagues they participate in, so there are limits to the value of a ranking, but it's absolutely ridiculous to expect that at 16's and 18's, california hockey is a failure because we don't have any top 20 teams from the state. 

Currently, the #1 ranked SSM U16 team has 5 California players and 2 kids from AZ.  The 16's Ducks have multiple kids who were at SSM as well as other out of state programs, who returned this season to play for the Ducks, most likely for this season only.  Overall, the trend will likely continue, with kids leaving California for other hockey programs, and having 3 teams or 6 or 8 AAA teams isn't going to make a difference to the kids who are highly recruited and leave. 

It might make a difference to a lot of the other families who plan to stay in the state, and perhaps in 3-5 years time, we'll see more people choosing to stay in state, and correspondingly, more competitive teams, purely from a ranking perspective, although again, rankings only give you a general idea of the relative capability of a team. 

What's a lot more important to a particular family is the experience of their kid, and not the ranking or reputation of a team.  What's more important than playing on a highly ranked team, is experiencing competition, training and improving.  If a kid is getting better at the sport, and that is motivation for other things they do in their lives, like academic preparation and achievement, goal setting, teamwork and camaraderie, these are the tangible benefits that go along with a successful hockey experience.  If that leads to higher levels of hockey, then that is a bonus.     

Knuckle Puck

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Re: Lots and lots of AAA teams next year
« Reply #43 on: October 22, 2021, 05:19:33 PM »
FWIW, I hear this 'exodus' story all the time. One of my kids is an 01 and I didn't see it happen in NorCal, so maybe it was SoCal specific. What usually happens when you see a bulge like that though, is some small number of coaches leaves for somewhere else, and people follow.

around a dozen 1999s left socal before they finished 16u.

over 80 2003s left before finishing 16u. the 2004s and 2005s both had around 75 leave.



the trend has nothing to do with coaches moving away and kids following them.

BladesofSteel66

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Re: Lots and lots of AAA teams next year
« Reply #44 on: October 24, 2021, 05:52:04 PM »
This is quickly turning into the worst thread on the site. 


 :-X