The issue is why kids feel the need to leave SoCal once they leave Bantams. HS is not very competitive, Tier II is only OK, and Tier I only offers two teams, despite the fact we're in a big market. It always behooves the customer to have more options, not to have a governing body manipulate the market. Meaning, CAHA should allow local teams to succeed and fail on their own merits, and let the market dictate their fate. Until USA Hockey intervenes, it seems the purge of kids out of SoCal seeking better options will continue, which is a shame.
I think it is a chicken or the egg thing. I think the reason solid AAA kids leave is BECAUSE there is not enough talent around them--they have reached the top of the pyramid, so to speak, and there is just not enough of them here to make staying worth while. I don't think it is because there is not another watered down AAA team in the next town they could join if they stayed instead.
I honestly don't think that's why people leave - certainly not the ones I've spoken to.
If you look at a typical AAA schedule for a CA team, they only play one home and one away game against each other. 4-6 games including exhibitions out of a 35-45 game schedule. The rest of the games are with teams from out of state or out of country where the competition is just fine. The CA teams tend to be in the top half of the rankings, with most of them in the top third. Each team has stars and players that struggle, but they are all largely capable of playing at that level (thus the rankings). T1EHL membership ensures that they are playing other great teams. That part isn't a problem.
People certainly don't leave for cost. East coast private boarding schools can be as much as 65k/yr.
My sense is that the reason people leave is for exposure for scholarship/draft possibilities, and the desire for a more all consuming hockey experience. When people get really serious (delusional?) about their kids there is a fear that they will not be seen out here - that when the draft comes, or the scholarships are rewarded, their kid will go unnoticed. There may be truth to that, though I've spoken to a number of hockey people (including pro agents) that say it's not something to worry about these days, particularly at the AAA level. And the clubs are getting better at ensuring visibility, because they know that sells.
The other piece is that you cannot match the ice time and experience that you get at an eastern school. A friend of mine left for Canada with his 02 a year ago and 5 days on the ice at the school is pretty common, with a 70+ game season. Playoffs in his league are best of 5 or best of 7.
The downsides are many though. Beyond cost, I know kids that are attending high school classes literally in the back room of a rink. Not much of a high school experience. At Tahoe I guess you get the choice of the local (pretty rural) school or online. You better be damn sure its what your kid wants to do with his life. Seems like a pretty serious one-way street for a 15 year old.