OCHockey07: I believe you have GSE1 and GSE2 records in the top 8 switched; shouldn't they be 2-2-1 and 2-3-1 respectively?
SlapShot: For me, the stats bear out 4 things before getting to 'crap shoot'-land. 1) Ducks and Kings look to be 1 & 2 with solid all-around teams, GSE1 is brining the stout defense consistently and GSE2 is bringing the offense consistently. Aside from that, only time will tell what 12-11 year olds show up in any given period...
My first impression of Top 8 rankings were:
- (1)Ducks, (2)Kings1, (3)GSE1, (4)Flyers, (5)ID, (6)GSE2, (7)Bears & (8)Heat
Then I focused on those games among what I found to be the top 8; disregarding anything not in-season, head to head among the top 8. Looking at strength of schedule inside those 8, W&L's, their deltas and GAA, GFA and the net of the two.
Games left versus Top 8 (7 games to play):
- 1 left: GSE2
- 2 left: GSE1
- 3 left: Ducks, Kings1, Flyers, Bears & Heat
- 4 left: ID1
Then: Who has played top 4 teams versus 5th-8th teams; noting:- Kings1: Have only played 1 top 5 opponent.
- GSE1: Games left against #2 & #6 (otherwise they are L-L-T-W-W < consistent...)
- GSE2: Only 1 game left; the Flyers (otherwise L-L-T-L-W-W < nearly consistent...)
- ID1: Yet to play 1st & 2nd or 7th & 8th.
Then: *Within Top 8* - Goals For, Goals Against, and the net of the two. 1st, 2nd, and 3rd are:
- GAA: #1-GSE1 (2), #2-Ducks (2.5), #3-Kings1 (3) ---rest above 4
- GFA: #1-Ducks (5.5), #2-Kings1 (5), #3-GSE2 (4.2) ---rest 3.7 to 3
- Net: #1-Ducks (3), #2-Kings1 (2), #3-GSE1 (0.8 ) ---rest are negative
When the dust settled, I have the following current rankings for Nov:
- (1)Ducks, (2)Kings1, (3)GSE1, (4)GSE2, (5)ID, (6)Flyers, (7)Bears & (8)Heat
For me, 1-3 & 7-8 are pretty straightforward. GSE2, ID1 & the Flyers are in the middle somewhere.
- I picked GSE2 4th because they have played the top 5 teams and still have a -0.5 Net from GFA-GAA.
- l put the Flyers in 6th based on their tied for last -1.75 Net.
- Even though ID1 beat GSE2, I placed them in 5th because they have yet to play the top two teams, already having a -0.33 Net. (Ducks & Kings1)
--- 4-6 could easily be a pick 'em...
I am not going to be guesstimating weekly scores, but I will guess end of season top 8 and their records...
1. Ducks 16-0
2. Kings1 12-2-2
3. GSE1 11-3-2
4. GSE2 11-4-1
5. ID1 11-4-1
6. Flyers 11-4-1
7. Bears 11-4-1
8. Heat 10-5-1