Of all the things I've read in this (often interesting and enjoyable) thread, this is the one that is the most audaciously hilarious "What I am saying is that I/anyone could personally hand-pick 50 players not 11UAAA in this state and put together an ADDITIONAL three EQUALLY competitive teams AAA teams." ... offered completely without evidence, like it should just be assumed.
I know nothing about the 11's, but a few things to consider...
- The 04 Jr Kings lost 10 players this year (for a lot of reasons, one contributor no doubt being some issues you may have read in the press last year, and because a couple are playing up at 16's.) I will assume they picked up the best AA players they could get. They went from MHR in the 20's to #71. So much for "Anyone can find 3 more teams of equally competitive AAA players!" Given the fact that AAA teams like the Kings would expect to turn over %15-%25 of the kids any year anyways, you are talking about finding an additional 5 or 6 kids at the same level. And they failed at staying at the same level competitiveness. In frigging LA.
- In the case of the 06 Jr Sharks, I believe they were hit mid season a year or two with an exodus which caused a lot of problems, but I have no inside info. All clubs get faced with the decision occasionally to either drop or muscle through a bad year, and there is no easy answer. They are MHR #71 too - ironically just like the Kings 04's. Are they competitive in CA? No, and the rest of their record is pretty bad too. But the CA games are 6 games out of a schedule of 35 or 40 travel games. Judging a CA AAA team based solely on CA results is silly.
- And AAA is very, very different than AA in ways that honestly a lot of AA parents don't see. And again, I'll point out that %15-%25 turnover DOES happen, every year, and those kids are often (but not always) coming up from AA. The best of the AA's, those ready to step up, are grabbed. The time for your kid to prove they are a AAA player is tryouts. They happen every year. The coaches have a lot more experience picking the right kids out than the parents.
And who knows, maybe some of those one-offs become part of the set of stable teams that have fewer questions asked. That would be great - we all want more actual AAA orgs and teams. But being a stable AAA org takes a track record.
It's very hard not to see a lot of this as 'Butt-hurt AA parents who's little Johnny's didn't make AAA again'. ;-)
Please no more about the sage GSE decision not to go '04 AAA. We all know that Norcal has far less players to draw from than SoCal. Even with the relative competitive disparity between the SoCal and NorCal AAA teams in most of the age groups over the last few years, they manage to produce some very good players. What continues to amuse me is how the "funnel to AAA" believers conveniently choose to excuse this disparity and claim that the system works in gathering ALL the best players into AAA.
The old adage "exceptions don't make the rule" is highly applicable to these arguments. You seem to think that the mass rebuild of a decimated Kings '04 team, and that team's not surprising struggles says something profound about the pool of talent. That team may indeed have some players who are not up to the current challenge of AAA, although I have not seen them play. Either way, a team that has been playing together for a several years under the same coaches (and again assuming competent coaching) with all things being equal, is going to have a significant advantage over a comparable team that was thrown together for the first time that season. This same thing happens in AA and even A.
Here's some things you glossed over about that team. There are 3 former "AA" players on that team, that I happen to know or know of and my kid has played with or against in AA. None of the 3 ever tried out for AAA previously. All 3 were chosen as '04 SCAHA selects. Of the 3, 2 are forwards. Those 2 forwards are leading the team in scoring and are both in the top 8 in CAHA division scoring. Interesting that the team also managed to beat both the Ducks and Sharks in an actual CAHA game. What a disgrace for a team that had to be entirely reconstituted from scratch.
You say these kid wouldn't have made AAA if they weren't replacements, and to that I say you don't know what the fuck you are talking about, and people who know the '04 year have known that both those kids were really good for years now.
There are kids who most people know would walk onto the 1st line of either of the AAA teams if they were interested, but just aren't. Not everyone has the means, availability or interest in playing AAA. Some people bide their time, or choose a different path for their kid's development that's focused on a coach they want to play for, or the fact that they can't justify a 3 hour one way commute to practice.
Anecdotally, I know of a kid who went club -> 1st line AAA Kings (leading scorer) -> big name prep school -> 1st line of AAA Ducks. This kid did not even play on the 1st line of the club team he played for the year prior. Anecdotes are fun!
Even people who have kids who have played AAA often know of a kid or 2 in AA that would make either of the AAA teams if they ever tried out. Over the previous 3 years my kid played AA, we have 4 former teammates who joined either the Ducks or Kings. They all made the teams on their 1st attempt right off of a tryout. And that is JUST FROM 1 "MEDIOCRE" AA TEAM!!!
I know of kids that have moved back and forth between AAA and AA for various reasons. I only know of 1 or 2 kids who have tried out for AAA and didn't make it and one of those kids is a Goalie. Talk about a sucky situation for that family. They travel a good distance to play AA at the club while they wait in line for the day that their kid will get the nod over one of the other 2 kids who have played for the AAA team for years. It's a gamble that may or may not ever pay off for them, but the clock is certainly ticking.
This idea that the AAA team tryouts are packed with AA's aspiring to join the AAA teams is a myth. Not surprisingly open slots are often pre-filled with kids in the club program who have played AA and are known to the coaches via workouts and privates. AA is in no way different from AAA in this regard. In the summer a "AA" coach commented to me that he knew the "AAA coach is going to take some kids from my team next year that he shouldn't be." This same coach had worked hard on recruiting an '06 for his '05 AA team who he had promised "will be the center of my 1st line all year". That kid ended up signing to play on an '06 team. Stories!
Now that the Ducks play out of Irvine there is going to be even less flexibility as the distance to Irvine makes it untenable for a lot of people to even consider the Ducks, or the Kings if you would need to be going South to north.
I could go on at length about the '05 year -- the 2nd place AA team has beat both the Kings and Ducks '05 AAA teams and tied the Sharks. I expect a fair number of players from AAA and AA will be leaving the state for prep schools next season if things go the way they appear they will. I'm willing to bet a few of the top '06 players will also leave.
There is more than enough evidence of the untapped potential of CA to roster AAA capable players in the '06 year. You are in some sort of serious denial if you can't admit that a brand new AAA team out of KHS that didn't even have ALL the best '06 kids AT THEIR CLUB, managed to have a pretty serviceable first year.
Personally I really find all this talk of winning and losing and records and MHR and the out of hand dismissal of lots of talented kids who are developing their game and getting some excellent coaching to be distasteful and unimportant. The belief that your team is superior to another team across the board, and that you're just far too good to get on the ice with some other group of kids of the same age can also come with unpleasant lessons, especially in the teen years. If you hold those beliefs, maybe look at your bias. It's a lot easier to prove that by limiting AAA to a couple of teams, so you don't have to play other californian kids I guess. Keep telling yourself that if they were any good, they would be lining up for spot on your team.
Don't admit that the AAA teams are full of kids who started at clubs and eventually migrated to the Kings and Ducks and Sharks. It speaks for itself that statistically there are a significant number of other kids who are just as capable and maybe even better than any number of current AAA players scattered throughout the 35+ AA and AAA teams who aren't going to line up. Only someone delusional or in deep denial would dismiss what is both historically evident and statistically likely.