So after this week of play I have the following picture - which is somewhat different from early season prognosis:
1. Tier-1 teams - Wave 1, Kings 1, Flyers 1 (moving up from 2-tier), Heat
2. Tier-2 - "tough" teams - Ducks 2 (downgraded from T1), Goldrush 2, Gulls 1
3. Tier-3 - has all others but the weakest teams and disparity in standings could be significant here:
Wave 2 (downgraded from T2), Gulls 2 (downgraded from T1 - my fault), Kings 2 (moving up), Goldrush 1, Ice Dogs, Ducks 1 (moving up), Bears, Mariners and Gulls 3
4. Tier-4 - everybody else - notably OC 2 (downgraded from T2 - my initial overestimation again), Empire and Condors downgraded from Tier-3
Standings do not reflect that picture to a full extent - mainly based on the schedule and bye weeks. Say, Kings 2 schedule will be getting tougher.
Play-off picture - first 4 - easy (and Heat + Flyers have the best schedule there)
2nd three - GR2 have the easiest schedule and if they hold their own should qualify.
Ducks 2 - they have the toughest schedule and they are losing points here and there - so will depend on some Tier-3 teams luck schedule and cant' afford to lose anymore points vs Tier-3 teams.
Gulls 1 - big question as schedule is moderately tough and their results do not give a clear message.
So that leaves 1-3 spots for Tier 3 teams to qualify for play-offs. And here there is a room for uncertainties... Wave 2 and GR 1 have the toughest schedules. No one really has the easiest. Kings 2 are doing great right now but their schedule suggests challenges. Gulls 2 surprisingly fell off - and at the risk of being criticized by other user here I might see them in Tier-4 after couple more rounds. Mariners could be a "dark horse" with "lighter" schedule.
And now I think that 18-20 points (more than 20-22) could a play-off threshold.
Anyhow, By Christmas the bottom play-off picture should start to clear out.
P.S. I never underestimated the Flyers - I just did not have the data to evaluate them properly and did not see them play. Tie with Wave 1 is a pretty good sample...